Waiting for the shape of lines to come

By LUCY MORGAN

© St. Petersburg Times, published February 3, 2001

The games are beginning The redistricting games, I mean. Those squiggly little lines on a Florida map that we redraw every 10 years to determine where legislative and congressional districts will be.

Although most of the work will be done in the 2002 legislative session, committees have been appointed and the jockeying has begun.

The coming of term limits is making more state legislators lust after a seat in the U.S. House of Representatives, so these are dangerous times for us all.

Republican Party Chairman Al Cardenas talked about those little lines Friday over Cuban sandwiches, chips and soft drinks at GOP headquarters in Tallahassee.

He believes the fight will be much less intense this time than it was a decade ago when the Democrats had a majority and Republicans were struggling to gain ground.

He recalled the days when the Democrats in the Legislature locked up all the computers and software and refused to let Republicans in. The state Republican Party had to buy its own computers to help out.

Now the Republicans have the keys to the Capitol, but Cardenas says they plan to share their toys with the Democrats.

The state will have a better idea of where to draw the lines when the U.S. Census figures are in sometime in April or May. That's when the line-drawing and the maneuvering will get serious.

Florida will get two additional seats in Congress. Many of the state legislative districts will shrink in geographic area.

Watch for the deal-making. What if a very prominent Republican senator and a high-ranking Democrat in the Senate happened to live in districts that could shrink in size without substantially changing?

That might mean that Sen. Jack Latvala, R-Palm Harbor, and Sen. Tom Rossin, D-West Palm Beach, could hang onto their seats without running. They were re-elected in 2000 to four-year terms, but will have to run again in 2002 if the district lines change very much.

But they could get a free ride if their district lines remain substantially the same and the people currently inside their respective districts remain the same people in 2002.

Cardenas says he thinks black legislators will again find Republican allies to help them create majority black districts despite a relationship that has grown more and more strained over the past year.

"We're gonna become friends," Cardenas said. "Whether it's with a handshake and a smile or kicking and screaming. Our interests are aligned. I don't see how they can have an affinity for anyone but us."

Ten years ago minority representation increased dramatically after Republicans and minority lawmakers joined forces to create new districts where minorities had a better chance of winning.

The trouble for Democrats is that when minority neighborhoods are linked together, it tends to "bleach" the surrounding districts and make it easier for Republicans to win.

Cardenas predicts that the GOP will repair its relations with the black community by using "the J.C. Watts model." That means finding black Republicans who will run in white districts and build good relationships with their constituents.

The GOP is looking for ways to sit down with members of the black community and address problems. He doesn't believe any Republican can shut the door to anyone in the African-American community and succeed.

"But building bridges through highly partisan activists is not going to work," says Cardenas. "We're trying to create our own network of leaders."

And they don't want to contribute to segregation by having black Republicans run only in minority districts.

"We would deprive ourselves of good leadership," Cardenas said.

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