State: Line forming to take on Bush

The surprisingly long line of Democrats listed by fundraisers, consultants and elected officials as potential challengers to Republican Gov. Jeb Bush in 2002 runs the length of the state and around the world.

It stretches from North Florida, for Tallahassee Mayor Scott Maddux, through Tampa, for U.S. Rep. Jim Davis and lawyer Bill McBride, to South Florida, for U.S. Rep. Robert Wexler in Boca Raton and state Sen. Daryl Jones in Miami.

It winds through Vietnam, where former congressman Pete Peterson is the U.S. ambassador. And it passes through Switzerland, where former congressman Jim Bacchus is an appellate judge for the World Trade Organization.

Casting long shadows over them all: U.S. Sen. Bob Graham and Attorney General Bob Butterworth. They are the Democrats' fantasy picks who are probably nothing more than that.

The maneuvering begins in earnest this week.

Davis, Wexler, Jones and Maddux are among the potential candidates for governor expected by Florida Democratic Party Chairman Bob Poe at private meetings this weekend. The gatherings will be held at the posh Biltmore Hotel in Coral Gables. More than three dozen fundraisers and activists are paying $5,000 each to mingle, plot strategy and hear results of a new poll that will try to gauge Jeb Bush's vulnerability.

The meeting reflects how the historic battle for the presidency has energized Florida Democrats and convinced them that the Republican governor is not unbeatable in an expected re-election bid next year.

George W. Bush won Florida and the presidency after the U.S. Supreme Court stopped recounts in the state five weeks after the election. But many Democrats say they believe a hand recount would have revealed that Al Gore won more votes.

Jeb Bush remains popular among Florida voters, but he has drawn strong criticism in the wake of the post-election battle.

His policies that replace affirmative action in university admissions and state contracting have triggered marches on the state Capitol by thousands of black Democrats. And the Bush-backed effort to dramatically change the way state universities are managed has prompted Graham to organize a drive to block it with a constitutional amendment.

Gore's strong showing in Florida is even prompting some Democrats to re-evaluate long-held convictions. Some now think a competitive primary, usually seen as divisive, could be helpful in rallying the party faithful. Others say Gore's populist message indicates some of the party's more liberal members from South Florida could fare as well in a statewide race as moderates by building huge advantages on their home turf.

"We are not trying to handpick a candidate," Poe said. "This is to say we have a common enemy, and it's Jeb Bush."

But none of the potential Democratic candidates are expressing anything more than mild interest until Graham and Butterworth clearly state their own plans. There is mounting pressure on both men to do that no later than the end of the legislative session in early May.

U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson said he is "going to start pushing to get an answer." U.S. Rep. Peter Deutsch of Fort Lauderdale said it would be "a disservice to the state" for Graham or Butterworth to wait much longer.

"If they want to run, let them run," said Jim Krog, who managed Lawton Chiles' successful campaigns for governor in 1990 and 1994. "If not, let somebody else saddle up."

Speculation about Graham's interest in the governor's race has been fueled by his outspoken opposition to Jeb Bush's plan to replace the Board of Regents that oversees the state university system -- and by Graham's typically cryptic comments about his future. But Graham came closer than ever last week to ruling out a run for governor.

"I am not running any campaign now," he said in an interview, adding that he has no plans to clarify whether he intends to remain in the Senate. "I can say it in words as many ways as I want to, but I hope it will be the performance that will be the best indicator."

Another hint: Graham confirmed that he views this situation differently than the last time he was urged to run for governor, a job he held from 1979 to 1987.

Graham, 64, openly debated whether to enter the 1998 governor's race before announcing shortly after his 60th birthday in November 1996 that he would seek re-election to the Senate. In an institution that prizes seniority, Graham is even better positioned now to increase his influence. And with the Senate tied at 50-50, Democrats are determined to win control in 2002.

Although Graham would not have to resign from the Senate to run for governor, he would face immediate criticism from Republicans if he attempted to hold onto the seat while campaigning for another job.

Butterworth, 58, is in a different position.

The attorney general will be forced out of his job by term limits next year. But he has repeatedly said he plans to return to Broward County, and he has passed up other opportunities to run for governor.

Still, many Democrats hold out hope that Graham or Butterworth will be motivated to run by the controversial presidential election results and by Jeb Bush's efforts to end affirmative action and overhaul education policy.

"I would eagerly and actively support either one of them," Bacchus said in an e-mail from Geneva last week. "Only if neither Graham nor Butterworth runs would I even consider doing so, and even then, I have many reasons for not running."

The Democrats' other possible candidates are all white men except for Jones, who is African-American. Their records run from liberal to conservative, and most are in the same situation as Bacchus.

"I'm happy what I'm doing, but I am increasing distressed at what I see happening in Tallahassee on education and other issues," Davis said. "I'm not actively promoting myself. I'm certainly not ruling it out."

Wexler downplays a possible run -- unless Republicans mess with his district when the GOP-led Legislature redraws congressional boundaries next year. McBride is the managing partner at Holland & Knight, the state's largest law firm, and he said he could not keep that position and run for governor.

"A lot of this is idle speculation," he said, because of the uncertainty about Graham and Butterworth. "My basic feeling is that the majority of the citizens of Florida (and) the Democratic Party (are) on the same side. All somebody has to do is motivate them, and we have not been able to do that."

Peterson, a conservative Democrat from North Florida and former prisoner of war, has been encouraged by several influential Democrats to run for governor. But he is still working out a trade agreement with Vietnam and has been asked by the Bush administration to remain as ambassador until perhaps this fall.

Anyone aside from Graham or Butterworth would be expected to begin actively preparing for a race for governor this summer. None of the Democrats' other top possibilities have run a statewide campaign, and it would take months to create an organization that could hope to compete with Bush's extensive network of supporters and contributors. Major fundraising would begin in September, when contributions from individuals could begin to be matched with state dollars.

"He's still going to be extremely strong and hard to beat by anyone," Rick Dantzler, who was Buddy MacKay's running mate in 1998 when Bush cruised to victory, said of the president's younger brother.

Dantzler, who dropped his own long-shot campaign for governor two years ago, plans to run for agriculture commissioner in 2002.

The possibilities

"My full intention is to run for re-election to Congress, but if that doesn't seem to be in the cards, then my full intention is to look at running for governor."

-- ROBERT WEXLER, U.S. House member from Boca Raton

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"I am certainly not ruling it out."

-- JIM DAVIS, U.S. House member from Tampa

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"It is not really possible for anyone to pursue a campaign actively while Bob Graham and Bob Butterworth remain undecided."

-- JIM BACCHUS, Lawyer, former member of Congress from Orlando

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"I've heard a lot of good people I like a lot."

-- BILL McBRIDE, Managing partner, Holland & Knight, Tampa