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Governor's rating drop reflects mistrust
By ADAM C. SMITH and TIM NICKENS © St. Petersburg Times, published February 19, 2001
A St. Petersburg Times poll of African-American voters in Florida shows that just 8 percent now approve of the governor's job performance. The poll, the first of its kind since the disputed presidential election in November, reflects a striking drop in support among blacks -- a group the governor has aggressively courted. Consider: When Bush was elected two years ago, he won 14 percent of African-American voters. And shortly after his election, the Florida Republican party touted an internal poll that suggested 58 percent of blacks viewed the governor favorably. But Bush, once hailed as a national model for inclusive Republicanism, is now viewed by most blacks as a political foe. The Times poll reflects suspicions that he helped engineer his brother's ascent to the White House, and there are bitter feelings over the governor's affirmative action policies. "The numbers scream at me like a novel. These people are angry," said pollster Rob Schroth, who conducted the poll for the Times. "Jeb Bush's prospects (for recouping African-American support) are extremely bleak today, but there is time to heal those wounds. It's an uphill climb, but it's not impossible." Bush said in an interview Friday that he will not decide whether to seek re-election until June, after the legislative session. He acknowledged that his gains among black voters have disappeared, but he said too many black Floridians aren't familiar with his record of accomplishments. "One way to eliminate misperceptions is you explain what the facts are. Part of that is my responsibility. Part of it is the responsibility of the press. I intend to do my part," the governor said. "I believe embracing diversity brings out the best policy," he said, "and I will continue to do it irrespective of politics." Bush's low standing among African-Americans seems to have started when he unveiled his "One Florida" plan to overhaul affirmative action in late 1999. He had hoped it would stave off an angry feud over affirmative action. Instead, it was bitterly divisive. The Times poll reflects outright hostility toward that plan and solid opposition to school vouchers, which is a key component of his program for education. The poll found that 87 percent oppose the affirmative action overhaul. It also found that 55 percent disagree with the use of school vouchers to provide public money for private school tuition for students in low-performing public schools. When Bush unveiled "One Florida," it was aimed at least partly at derailing a more far-reaching effort by Californian Ward Connerly to eliminate affirmative action. Bush sought to end many racial preferences and set-asides in Florida and replaced them with a system intended to encourage greater diversity in university admissions and state spending. Minority enrollment in state universities is rising, and state agencies are reporting to Bush spending increases with women- and minority-owned firms of at least 88 percent. But opposition to One Florida is not subsiding. The poll found only 4 percent of black voters supportive.
The telephone survey of 600 registered voters has a margin of error rate of plus or minus 4 percentage points. In follow-up interviews, even people familiar with the details of One Florida and the track record touted by Bush were deeply skeptical. "It may be so that some of the numbers are up, but who trusts Jeb Bush?" asked the Rev. Leighwynn Howell, an associate pastor and county correctional officer from St. Petersburg. "Just as you can turn on a water faucet, you can turn it right off." Bush's most ardent African-American supporters say blacks are being misled by Democrats about Bush. But they acknowledge concern over the widespread negative feelings black Floridians have of their governor. "A lot of people are angry. They say they supported him before but wouldn't do it again. I tell them, 'Let's wait for things to cool down and have a dialogue,' " says former Palm Beach City Commissioner Mary Hooks, who now serves as Bush's labor secretary. "The governor has an amazing ability to reach out to people, and I would think that is something he can do and more than likely will do." In 1998, Bush campaigned harder for African-American support than any major Republican candidate in Florida history. Exit polls showed he picked up 14 percent of black voters, an apparent record for a Republican gubernatorial candidate in Florida. That was up from 6 percent he got in 1994 against Democrat Lawton Chiles. Once in office, Bush established a record of diverse hires and appointments, including what he says is an unprecedented number of minority judicial appointments. During his tenure, state spending also has increased on programs that help minorities, from health care to college preparation. "I think most people would agree our commitment to having a diverse judiciary is pretty unprecedented, but the folks who are being polled aren't reading about that," Bush said. "As those facts get out I think people will say, 'Maybe my perception was wrong.' That's the best I can do." The governor also recently waded into two racially charged issues. He ordered an investigation into a Maryland legislator's complaint that he was refused service at bar in the north Florida town of Perry because he is black. And Bush saw to it that a Confederate national flag that since 1978 had flown outside the state Capitol in Tallahassee was quietly taken down and sent to the Florida Museum of History. "I think race relations are no different here than the rest of the country, and most people in elected offices strive to improve them," Bush said. "I know I do. That's the reality. When there are occurrences of discrimination, as was the case, at least allegedly, in Perry, those things are investigated fully; and there will be consequences." So what does Bush have to show for all of the state programs he cites as beneficial to blacks? Several civil rights demonstrations staged in shouting distance from his office. The Bush name -- be it George W. or Jeb -- is badly tainted among many African-American voters in Florida. An internal poll for the Florida Democratic Party conducted at roughly the same time as the Times survey found similar antagonism toward the governor. In a race between Bush and an unnamed Democrat, 90 percent of African-Americans said they would back the Democrat and only 2 percent supported Bush. Among white voters, 52 percent backed Bush and 38 percent the unknown Democrat. Nothing illustrates the importance of African-American voters better than November's presidential election. Without that energized voting bloc, there would have been no Florida recount. George W. would have indisputably won. In Florida, black voters represented 15 percent of the overall turnout in November, an increase of 50 percent from 1996. More than 80 percent of the state's black voters turned out to vote -- and 93 percent of them voted for Gore. The Times poll found vast suspicion about the election's outcome and Jeb Bush's role in it. A stunning 91 percent think Al Gore actually received more votes, and 84 percent think a disproportionate number of African-American's votes were rejected. Asked who was most responsible for George W.'s ultimate victory, Jeb Bush was most frequently mentioned. Thirty-six percent of the voters polled attributed George W. Bush's victory to Jeb Bush, while Secretary of State Katherine Harris and the U.S. Supreme Court each received 22 percent. "It's a classic case of who you know. Isn't it convenient that it all came down to the state where his brother is governor, and that's where George W. Bush won," said Kerilynn Kelly-Moss, a 32-year-old business owner in Titusville. "It's a rip-off, and I'm really angry about it. I don't like either of the Bushes. I just don't think they're very fond of people with much skin pigmentation." In his last campaign, Jeb Bush consistently held public events with African-American supporters near his side. Many of those supporters today say they remain enthusiastic but acknowledge Bush has become a magnet for criticism among black Floridians. "There are a lot of people who were out front and stuck their necks out and now are a little reticent," said Watson Haynes, a St. Petersburg Republican and longtime civil rights activist. "You have to look at people's records, and I'm afraid people are being misled about what Jeb Bush is really trying to accomplish." In 1998, five prominent elected African-Americans publicly endorsed Jeb Bush. Three of them -- former state Reps. Rudy Bradley of St. Petersburg and Willie Logan of Opa-Locka, and former state Sen. James Hargrett of Tampa -- now are out of office after losing elections last year. State Rep. Chris Smith, D-Fort Lauderdale, said Bush won him over in 1998 with his energy, frequent visits to black churches and enthusiasm for inner-city revitalization. Big mistake, Smith now says of his endorsement. Bush's "arrogance," especially with One Florida, have overshadowed genuine accomplishments, Smith said. He doubts any elected African-American will risk endorsing Bush any time soon. "I would bet a lot of those churches he visited wouldn't let him in their doors today,"said Smith, a 30-year-old lawyer. But Rudy Bradley, who switched to the GOP in 1999, said he hopes the governor keeps on doing what he's been doing. "You can't beat the truth down but for so long," said Bradley, who was front and center with George W. Bush at the GOP convention. "People are feeling animosity because they're being told lies. They've been fed a bunch of garbage by people who for political reasons don't want to tell the truth about how African-Americans have benefited under a Republican governor and Republican legislature."
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