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Mayoral election up for grabs
By TIM NICKENS © St. Petersburg Times, published February 21, 2001 ST. PETERSBURG -- Six days before one of the most unusual mayoral elections in years, even the candidates aren't sure where they stand with voters. There are too many variables. The two-term incumbent mayor, David Fischer, isn't seeking re-election. Taxes and crime are down. Voters are generally content and paying little attention to the race. With less than 30 percent of the city's voters expected to go to the polls Tuesday, any two of the top five candidates could advance to the March 27 general election. It could take as little as winning 25 percent of the vote to make the cut. Each of the leading candidates has a geographic or philosophical base of support. How well they turn out that support, and poach from the bases of their opponents, will swing a tight race. Of the nine candidates for mayor, Rick Baker should win one of the two spots, conventional wisdom says. The lawyer has raised the most money, aired the most ads on cable television and established perhaps the deepest campaign organization. He also won the recommendation of the Times' editorial board, no small matter in a local race with no hot buttons. "You expect the Yankees to win when they've got all of the money," said Larry Williams, a City Council member and mayoral candidate. The other spot comes down to former Planning Commission Chairman Karl Nurse, City Council member Kathleen Ford, social activist Omali Yeshitela and Williams, probably in that order. Nurse and Yeshitela are picking up momentum, according to interviews with a dozen candidates, consultants and neighborhood activists. Ford has a loyal following -- and at least as many hardened opponents. Williams is relying on longtime friendships and experience but hasn't generated widespread enthusiasm. Williams should be strongest in Pinellas Point, the heart of his council district. His yard signs there outnumber all others combined, although Nurse also has a presence. In predominantly black neighborhoods south of Central Avenue, the question is whether Yeshitela can run up a huge advantage. Black voters helped Fischer win two general elections, but they may be divided among several candidates next week. Nurse expects to win support from black voters with the help of endorsements from black politicians such as City Council member Rene Flowers -- which he promoted in a mailing in her district. Baker promotes his charitable and redevelopment efforts. But it is Nurse who has warned black voters in campaign forums not to waste their vote on someone who could not win the general election. Yeshitela pounced on the implication. "The assumption is very clear to everyone," Yeshitela countered at a forum this week, "that they will waste their vote for a black candidate, voting for Omali Yeshitela." The most hotly contested council race Tuesday also covers mostly black neighborhoods south of Central Avenue. That could drive up turnout among black voters, who make up 17.6 percent of the city's voters, and help Yeshitela. Yeshitela's campaign also is reaching out to white voters, particularly liberals, environmentalists and gays who might identify with his efforts to fight government and promote civil rights. "I am pleasantly surprised at how he has reached out to constituencies in St. Petersburg that go beyond what you would expect," said Frank Jackalone, a Pinellas Point resident and environmentalist who is deciding between Yeshitela and Ford. Baker, a former chairman of the St. Petersburg Area Chamber of Commerce, locked up the support of most downtown business leaders. Whether that translates into as many votes as campaign contributions is uncertain. He also should do well in well-to-do neighborhoods such as the Old Northeast and Snell Isle. Ford's geographic base is her Old Northeast neighborhood. But she also appeals to St. Petersburg voters who are anti-tax, anti-downtown and anti-Goliath Davis, the police chief. Those voters backed Fischer's challengers in the last two races. Nurse, who lives in the Old Southeast, expects his years of work with neighborhood leaders to pay off. "They have as close to a precinct organization that exists," he said. One likely swing area: the Tyrone area and other neighborhoods on the city's west side, where all of the leading candidates expect to win votes. Residents there often feel isolated from downtown and want more attention. They will get plenty of it over the next six days. "I'm not taking anything for granted," Baker said. "I think the whole city is up for grabs." -- Staff writer Bryan Gilmer contributed to this report.
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