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National League teams at a glance

Listed in order of predicted finish

By JOHN ROMANO

© St. Petersburg Times, published April 1, 2001


EAST

ATLANTA BRAVES

logo2000 RECAP: 95-67, 1st in NL East.

PROJECTED PAYROLL: $90-million.

BIGGEST ADDITION: Surgically repaired P John Smoltz.

GONNA MISS: 1B Andres Galarraga.

WHY THIS TEAM IS VULNERABLE: Other than the Jones duo -- Andruw and Chipper -- there is a lack of pop in the lineup. That normally would not be a problem, but the rotation is not as strong as past years, with Smoltz coming off surgery and Kevin Millwood coming off a down season.

WHAT MAY CHANGE THEIR COURSE: If the Braves can nurse Smoltz along and have him ready for October, they still can win a post-season series on pitching alone.

BOTTOM LINE: They have gone from 106 wins to 103 to 95. That's still among baseball's upper echelon, but it's a disturbing trend for a team that did not help itself in the off-season.

NEW YORK METS

2000 RECAP: 94-68, 2nd in NL East; NL champions.

logoPROJECTED PAYROLL: $87-million.

BIGGEST ADDITION: P Kevin Appier.

GONNA MISS: P Mike Hampton.

WHY METS FANS SHOULD BE DISAPPOINTED: New York did all kinds of flirting the past few months, but little to actually improve its team. Free agents Appier and Steve Trachsel combined do not equal the loss of Hampton. The Mets also did nothing to improve their offense.

WHAT MAY CHANGE THEIR COURSE: There were rumors the Mets were in the running for Gary Sheffield and they may still be shopping for another bat. Their outlook could change with a new No. 5 hitter.

BOTTOM LINE: It is hard to imagine a team winning a World Series with an outfield of Benny Agbayani, Jay Payton and Timo Perez.

FLORIDA MARLINS

2000 RECAP: 79-82, 3rd in NL East.

logoPROJECTED PAYROLL: $35-million.

BIGGEST ADDITION: C Charles Johnson.

GONNA MISS: That underdog role.

WHY THEY WILL HIT A BUMP IN THE ROAD: They were the most improved team in the league last season, going from 64 wins to 79. One reason was the maturation of young talent. Another was they won a ton of one-run games. The talent is still there but closer to its apex, and the one-run games will even out.

WHAT MAY CHANGE THEIR COURSE: Florida could take a step backward if Antonio Alfonseca does not have a repeat of his 45-save season. Alfonseca got a lot of cheapies last year.

BOTTOM LINE: Florida still has some of the best, young talent in the game. But the Marlins as contenders are a couple of years away.

MONTREAL EXPOS

logo2000 RECAP: 67-95, 4th in NL East.

PROJECTED PAYROLL: $35-million.

BIGGEST ADDITION: Fernando Tatis.

GONNA MISS: P Dustin Hermanson.

WHY SOMEONE SHOULD REMIND MONTREAL THAT IT HAS A BASEBALL TEAM: There is actually a lot to like about this club. Vladimir Guerrero is one of the five best players in the game and second baseman Jose Vidro and right-hander Javier Vazquez are two of the most underrated players in the game.

WHAT MAY CHANGE THEIR COURSE: If the city does not come up with some ideas of how to make this franchise work, the Expos could be spending their final season in Montreal.

BOTTOM LINE: Same as always. Some exciting young players, a great manager and no hope of contending.

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES

2000 RECAP: 65-97, 5th in NL East.

logoPROJECTED PAYROLL: $43-million.

BIGGEST ADDITION: Rookie SS Jimmy Rollins.

GONNA MISS: 3B Mike Schmidt (still).

WHY THERE IS LITTLE REASON FOR OPTIMISM: Even though the middle of the lineup is solid -- Bobby Abreu, Scott Rolen, Pat Burrell -- there is not enough pitching to even pretend they are contenders.

WHAT MAY CHANGE THEIR COURSE: An awful lot would have to go right. Rollins as a Rookie of the Year candidate, Travis Lee finally hitting to his potential, Jose Mesa having a 1995 flashback. In other words, forget it.

BOTTOM LINE: A new stadium is probably three years away. And so are the Phillies.

CENTRAL

ST. LOUIS CARDINALS

2000 RECAP: 95-67, 1st in NL Central.

logoPROJECTED PAYROLL: $75-million.

BIGGEST ADDITION: P Dustin Hermanson.

GONNA MISS: 3B Fernando Tatis.

WHY MARK MCGWIRE COULD PLAY IN A WORLD SERIES AGAIN: Two reasons -- No. 1, the Cardinals have a very solid team and, No. 2, there are no great teams in the National League. The rotation is not as top-heavy as Atlanta or Los Angeles, but it can be solid from No. 1 to 5.

WHAT COULD CHANGE THEIR COURSE: Rick Ankiel's control problem literally could throw the season off-target. If he has control, he is probably a No. 1 starter. If he does not, the rotation is considerably weakened.

BOTTOM LINE: Barring catastrophe, the Cardinals should have little trouble repeating as the Central champions.

HOUSTON ASTROS

2000 RECAP: 72-90, 4th in NL Central.

logoPROJECTED PAYROLL: $58-million.

BIGGEST ADDITION: C Brad Ausmus.

GONNA MISS: OF Roger Cedeno.

WHY THE ASTROS HAVE WILD CARD DREAMS: Because the NL Central stinks and the unbalanced schedule will favor Houston. More than half of Houston's games are against the Brewers, Pirates, Cubs, Reds, Twins, Expos and Padres. The Rays could be contenders with that schedule.

WHAT MAY CHANGE THEIR COURSE: One of the biggest factors in last season's disaster was Billy Wagner's bad elbow. If he is healthy -- and he looks it -- Houston can contend. If he is not, the Astros could be below .500.

BOTTOM LINE: Enron Field is looking like Coors Field-South. The Astros will score runs, but their rotation has to hold up its end.

CINCINNATI REDS

2000 RECAP: 85-77, 2nd in NL Central.

logoPROJECTED PAYROLL: $42-million.

BIGGEST ADDITION: Ken Griffey's smile.

GONNA MISS: The 2000 rotation.

WHY THEY ARE HEADING DOWN: Much of the payroll is tied up in Barry Larkin's and Griffey's contracts. And, while Griffey seems like he has gotten over his sourpuss antics of 2000, he cannot carry a bad team. Heck, he did not even carry a good team in Seattle.

WHAT MAY CHANGE THEIR COURSE: General manager Jim Bowden has trouble sitting still, so do not be surprised to see him deal Pete Harnisch, Dmitri Young and Scott Williamson for prospects.

BOTTOM LINE: The Reds dealt Denny Neagle, Steve Parris and Ron Villone in the past year and they accounted for 46 percent of the starts in the rotation last season. Elmer Dessens, Rob Bell and Osvaldo Fernandez are not adequate replacements.

MILWAUKEE BREWERS

2000 RECAP: 73-89, 3rd in NL Central.

logoPROJECTED PAYROLL: $45-million.

BIGGEST ADDITION: Tony Fernandez.

GONNA MISS: County Stadium (NOT!).

WHY PRESIDENT BUSH IS THROWING OUT THE FIRST PITCH: To show Republicans really do care about the poor and downtrodden. Oh, the Brewers are not baseball's worst team, but they certainly are not going to follow the lead of Cleveland, San Francisco and Atlanta as teams that were hitting a peak as they entered a new ballpark.

WHAT MAY CHANGE THEIR COURSE: If Olympian Ben Sheets grows up fast, Jimmy Haynes shows any guts and Jeff D'Amico is healthy, the Brewers may have enough starting pitching to keep things relatively interesting.

BOTTOM LINE: The Brewers have been consistent. They have won 78, 74, 74 and 73 games the past four seasons. Look for them to stay the course.

PITTSBURGH PIRATES

2000 RECAP: 78-83, 5th in NL Central.

logoPROJECTED PAYROLL: $47-million.

BIGGEST ADDITION: Derek Bell.

GONNA MISS: Their rotation in April.

WHY FANS WILL LOVE PNC PARK: Because they will have plenty of time to explore the amenities in Pittsburgh's new park because the product on the field will not be too appealing. Kris Benson, Jason Schmidt and Francisco Cordova are expected to miss chunks of April, devastating the rotation and ensuring the Pirates will be buried by Memorial Day.

WHAT MAY CHANGE THEIR COURSE: Remarkable advancements in the field of medicine.

BOTTOM LINE: The Pirates are on the right track with Jason Kendall, Brian Giles and Benson tied up in long-term contracts and the opening of the new stadium should help revenues, but there is little reasons for optimism in 2001.

CHICAGO CUBS

2000 RECAP: 65-97, 6th in NL Central.

PROJECTED PAYROLL: $67-million.

logoBIGGEST ADDITION: Todd Hundley.

GONNA MISS: Mark Grace.

WHY CUBS FANS HAVE REASON TO BE OPTIMISTIC: Because they have had 80 or 90 years to practice. The Cubs have had three playoff appearances in the past half-century and none have led to a World Series. That certainly will not change in 2001. Besides Sammy Sosa and Kerry Wood, there is little reason to be excited about this club.

WHAT MAY CHANGE THEIR COURSE: Tom Gordon, if healthy, could be a dominant closer again. And if Julian Tavarez and Jason Bere come through at the Nos. 4 and 5 spots, the rotation will be decent. All of that might mean 82 wins.

BOTTOM LINE: It is difficult to figure out the direction of this club. Perhaps because there is no direction. They are like baseball's low brow frat house.

WEST

SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS

2000 RECAP: 97-65, 1st in NL West.

logoPROJECTED PAYROLL: $62-million.

BIGGEST ADDITION: Pac Bell Park -- again.

GONNA MISS: Ellis Burks.

WHY THE GIANTS SHOULD REPEAT AS DIVISION CHAMPS: San Francisco has the best blue-collar rotation in the majors. Livan Hernandez, Kirk Rueter, Russ Ortiz and Shawn Estes all have had seasons of 16 wins or more, but none has been a 20-game winner. Add veteran Mark Gardner and you have five guys who should win 12-17 games each.

WHAT MAY CHANGE THEIR COURSE: Much has been made of the impact Burks had in the clubhouse and, on a team with Barry Bonds' massive ego, the chemistry factor should not be discounted.

BOTTOM LINE: Five solid starters, a top closer in Robb Nen, the National League MVP in Jeff Kent and Bonds make for a pretty strong combination. Not to mention Dusty Baker, one of the three best managers in the game.

LOS ANGELES DODGERS

2000 RECAP: 86-76, 2nd in NL West.

logoPROJECTED PAYROLL: $109-million.

BIGGEST ADDITION: Manager Jim Tracy.

GONNA MISS: Gary Sheffield (oops, spoke too soon).

WHY THINGS COULD BE WORSE: Yes, Sheffield's spring whining was a distraction and Adrian Beltre's recovery from a botched appendectomy could weaken the lineup for two months, but the Dodgers still have a strong rotation with Kevin Brown, Chan Ho Park, Darren Dreifort and Andy Ashby.

WHAT MAY CHANGE THEIR COURSE: Do not discount the possibility that Sheffield could be dealt. General manager Kevin Malone is desperate to save his job and will make any move he thinks will spark the club.

BOTTOM LINE: If Shawn Green bounces back and Tracy has an impact in a lethargic clubhouse, the Dodgers might contend.

ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS

2000 RECAP: 85-77, 3rd in NL West.

PROJECTED PAYROLL: $83-million.

logoBIGGEST ADDITION: Mark Grace.

GONNA MISS: Deserting fans.

WHY TIME IS OF THE ESSENCE: Arizona had better win this year because future prospects are not good. The D'Backs are way old, have a mediocre farm system and serious revenue problems. Six of the eight position players are 33 or older and three of the five starters in the rotation are 34 or older.

WHAT MAY CHANGE THEIR COURSE: Injuries, injuries, injuries. Matt Williams, Reggie Sanders and Curt Schilling are just a few of the oldsters who have had health problems in the past.

BOTTOM LINE: For the first time since 1998, it may be better to be a Devil Rays fan than a Diamondbacks fan.

COLORADO ROCKIES

2000 RECAP: 82-80, 4th in NL West.

logoPROJECTED PAYROLL: $70-million.

BIGGEST ADDITION: Mike Hampton.

GONNA MISS: Jeffrey Hammonds.

WHY THIS WILL BE A FASCINATING SEASON: You could make an argument that Colorado's strength in 2001 is its pitching rotation. Now how's that for a change? Investing $172.5-million in Hampton and Denny Neagle and acquiring Ron Villone from Cincinnati has revamped the rotation. Will it work? Stay tuned.

WHAT MAY CHANGE THEIR COURSE: Oddly enough, the Rockies have some questions on offense. If CF Juan Pierre is not as good as advertised, if LF Ron Gant continues his downhill decline, if RF Larry Walker has more injuries, the Rockies will struggle to score on the road.

BOTTOM LINE: Could be a wild card contender if not for the unbalanced schedule in the tough NL West.

SAN DIEGO PADRES

2000 RECAP: 76-86, 5th in NL West.

PROJECTED PAYROLL: $37-million.

logoBIGGEST ADDITION: Rickey Henderson.

GONNA MISS: Bret Boone.

WHY ADDING HENDERSON WAS A GOOD IDEA: Because the Padres will need a good sideshow to keep fans entertained. Not only is Henderson good for a controversy or two, but his march to 3,000 hits will make for some excitement.

WHAT MAY CHANGE THEIR COURSE: The Padres have no illusions about this season. They have a poor infield defense, limited power and a mediocre rotation. Oh, and their plans for a new stadium keep hitting roadblocks.

BOTTOM LINE: Next to the Expos, this might be the most moribund franchise in the National League. At least Pittsburgh and Milwaukee have new stadiums and the Phillies have a young star or two. The Padres have a 40-year-old rightfielder and a 42-year-old leftfielder -- and Tony Gwynn and Henderson are San Diego's biggest attractions.

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