State: Cuban-Americans await Bush's stand

President Bush has yet to make clear his policy on Cuba. Friday's event, marking the island's May 20 Independence Day, wasn't meant to shed much light.

Coming on the heels of a Cinco de Mayo bash at the White House for Mexican-Americans, it was intended as a "feel-good" photo opportunity for South Florida's loyal core of Cuban-American Republicans.

It was still quite a gathering, with 200 guests. Although the White House has celebrated Cuban Independence Day for a number of years, under Clinton it was a smaller affair.

Friday's guest list read like a who's who of Miami's Cuban community, including members of Congress, Miami Mayor Joe Carollo and top officials of the Cuban American National Foundation. Pop star Jon Secada sang the U.S. national anthem. Cuba's was rendered by Gloria Estefan.

Cuban-American leaders said the invitation was a "thank you" to those in the community who had helped get Bush elected. Sen. Bob Graham was also invited in recognition of his service to the hard-line Cuban cause.

The event came two days after Sen. Jesse Helms, R-N.C., introduced a bill seeking $100-million to support the pro-democracy efforts of Cuban dissidents on the island.

Bush said he would support legislation like the Cuban Solidarity Act, which would provide dissidents cash, fax machines, telephones and other items to aid them in promoting democracy in Cuba.

"Our nation has an economic embargo against Castro's regime," Bush said during the East Room event. "But today of all days it is important for us to remember that our goal is not to have an embargo against Cuba, it is freedom in Cuba."

Bush has also proposed more spending on Radio and TV Marti, which Castro has jammed since the U.S. television broadcast went on the air in 1990.

Cuban-American hard-liners have high expectations that the Bush administration will adopt a more proactive Cuba policy, despite the risks that this might upset United States allies in Latin American and Europe.

After the Elian Gonzalez debacle last year, a revamped Cuban American National Foundation has found new life. Today the group is set to inaugurate its new headquarters at Miami's Freedom Tower. As a symbol of CANF's enduring strength, the group has pumped $40-million into restoring the landmark building, which once served as a processing center for Cubans fleeing the island in the early 1960s.

But policy analysts across the political spectrum say Bush's hands may be tied when it comes to Cuba.

"There's a lack of definition in Cuba policy right now for good reason. The (Republican) Party is divided," said Damian Fernandez, a leading Cuba expert at Florida International University. "The president is in a Catch-22 situation, caught between two competing sections of the party."

Conservatives in the party, with close ties to Miami's right-wing Cubans, are pushing for a more aggressive policy to undermine Cuban leader Fidel Castro.

But the party's business sector -- led by agricultural interests -- recently led a congressional challenge to the 38-year-old U.S. economic embargo against Cuba. With so many other countries now trading with Cuba, U.S. business is missing out, they complain.

Furthermore, a growing number of Republicans argue the embargo's poor international image only serves to help Castro deflect criticism of his one-party regime.

"George W. Bush is not an ideologue. It's the business community that's his real constituency," said William Goodfellow, a director at the Washington-based Center for International Policy, which advocates lifting the embargo. "Does he listen to Calle Ocho (Cuban Miami's Main Street) or Wall Street?"

Cuban analysts are watching closely for a series of coming nominations to key government posts.

Bush's choice to fill the State Department's top Latin America position has already encountered difficulty. The nomination of Otto Reich, a hard-line Cuban-American and former senior State Department official in the Reagan administration, is being blocked by Senate Democrats.

Three other conservatives with strong views on Cuba are also reported to be in the running for important positions at the National Security Council, the U.S. Agency for International Development and as U.S. ambassador to the Organization of American States.

The big test comes July 17, when Bush must decide a key issue in U.S.-Cuba policy stemming from 1996 anti-Castro legislation.

President Clinton chose to waive Title III of the Helms-Burton law, which would allow Cuban-Americans to prosecute and seize the assets of any foreign company deemed to be trading in property confiscated by the Cuban government. It also allows for the denial of travel visas to the United States for officers in those companies.

Title III is opposed by U.S. allies in Europe and Latin America, who argue it is an extraterritorial violation of international law.

"Title III will hurt our relations with the rest of the hemisphere," said Sally Grooms Cowal, president of the Cuban Policy Foundation, an anti-embargo group led by former U.S. officials and diplomats.

"That's something this president really seems to care about," she added, referring to Bush's already close relationship with Mexican President Vicente Fox.

Despite appearances in Washington, Grooms Cowal and others believe the tide of public opinion is turning inexorably toward improved U.S.-Cuba relations.

The Cuba Policy Foundation this week published the results of a poll conducted last month that showed 63.3 percent of Americans now support opening trade with Cuba. Perhaps most surprisingly, the poll found 54.1 percent of Florida Hispanics supported lifting the trade embargo.

While signals from the White House might be unfavorable for the anti-embargo lobby, "it's early days," said Grooms Cowal.

"It's only a matter of time before they (the Cuba policy hard-liners) run out of gas. Our poll shows the emperor has no clothes."

- Information from the Associated Press was used in this report.

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Lucy Morgan

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