Odds run counter to repealing term limits

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By HOWARD TROXLER

© St. Petersburg Times, published May 29, 2000

It was fun and juicy to be at the Tiger Bay Club of Tampa's meeting last Thursday evening. That was the same day the Tampa City Council decided to hold an election this fall on repealing local term limits.

One of the club's scheduled guests was City Council member Bob Buckhorn, and everybody wanted to see how he was holding up. Buckhorn wants to be Tampa's next mayor. But if the voters repeal term limits, then Mayor Dick Greco could run for a third term.

So when Buckhorn showed up at the Wyndham Harbor Island Hotel, fresh on the losing end of the council's 5-2 vote, he caught a proper share of tiger-clawed grief. People slapped him on the back and said, "Hello, mayor," and so forth. He grinned and bore it.

The city's voters will be asked in the November general election whether to repeal the limit of two consecutive, four-year terms that now apply to the mayor and council.

In calling this election, the majority of the council kept blabbing on about how this is Not About Personality. That was bull, of course, because this is precisely about getting a third term for His Honor, Mayor Richard A. Greco Sr. No disrespect to the mayor, but, let's call a shovel a shovel.

Some of the dinner talk was a debate over the council's vote. On the negative side, this is not exactly a groundswell from the citizens. It is a small group of his buddies and supporters, pulling the council's strings.

It is tacky, too, that the council called an election that would benefit the current members. The usual, classier thing to do is to say such a change will apply to future members. Buckhorn tried to put in that requirement, but he was the only one in favor of it.

The council members insisted they were simply coming out in favor of letting the voters decide. "Who am I," asked Charlie Miranda, "to stand in the way of democracy?"

Now, come on. The council cannot just put anything on the ballot and say it has no responsibility. Why not throw up the idea of paying council members $1-million a year, or giving them all Cadillacs? Hey, the final decision would be up to the voters -- who can be opposed to democracy?

The milk is spilled now; no sense boo-hooing. The question is whether the amendment will pass. In such a political room, there were a lot of theories about that, too. Greco is a popular mayor. The well-organized support of firefighters and police would be a factor.

But my bet is that the idea of repealing term limits will be defeated. Voters around the nation have rejected almost every attempt to repeal term limits.

The last bay area attempt came in 1993, when voters in St. Petersburg were asked to repeal term limits for their City Council. The voters rejected the idea almost 2-to-1. In the technical language of political science, such a margin of loss is known as a "butt-kicking."

Here is another factor: City elections are held in March every four years, but this referendum will be held in November of a presidential election year. Turnout in the last municipal election in March 1999 was about 25 percent. Overall turnout in the 1996 presidential election was closer to 70 percent.

In other words, a sizable majority of those voting on term limits will not be the same voters who re-elected Dick Greco last year.

It will be a fun contest. Will the mayor's popularity trump the voters' default preference for term limits? Will the support of phone-banking firefighters, grateful developers and nest-feathering City Hall types persuade the voters to give up one of their favorite weapons? Hey, it sounds at least as interesting as Gore-Bush, doesn't it?

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