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Picture needs time to develop
© St. Petersburg Times, They have divvied up the talent, and everyone has chosen sides. All that's left to do after Wednesday night's NBA draft is wait. And wait. And wait.And ... Wednesday was another sign of how the NBA is changing, how it's starting to look a lot more like the NHL and Major-league baseball, where the annual harvest of new talent comes with these words of caution: Be patient. Be very patient. The NBA draft is becoming more about potential and promise than immediate help. It's becoming about what might be instead of what is right now. And more than a few people will tell you that's not such a good thing. The story of this draft is not Duke senior Shane Battier, even though he was most complete and polished player in the pool. It's about so many tomorrows. It's about planning not for next year but the four or five years after that. It's about having a shot at a full house but gambling on drawing four of a kind. Want to know the big winners from this draft? Get back to me in, oh, six or seven years. Maybe I'll have a definitive answer for you. Used to be these kinds of things could be determined on draft night. You could see which teams picked the best players because many of them had played two or three years of college ball, making their NBA careers easier to predict. But more and more we're having to wait as more underclassmen, plus a high school player or two, jump into the mix. This year is really going to try our patience because you've got four teams gambling lottery picks on the potential of prep players who have never played a second in college, let alone the NBA. Who really knows how good a kid like Kwame Brown or Tyson Chandler is going to be? And who really knows how long it's going to take to find out? Heck, by then their teams might need an athletic guard more than another center. That is, if they can keep Brown, Chandler and the others that long. With rookie contracts limited to three years, those guys could be with their second or third team by the time they begin to blossom. You don't think Toronto is still kicking itself about losing Tracy McGrady to Orlando? "You don't know how they are going to pan out," Rockets player personnel director Dennis Lindsey told the Sporting News. "This guy can shoot, this guy might get bigger, this guy can jump. But there is not enough information to tell how they will be as complete basketball players." You don't have to tell that to folks in Dallas or Utah or Detroit. The Mavs got burned two years ago by prep star Leon Smith, who bombed out in less than one season because of emotional problems. Jazz officials may be having second thoughts after DeShawn Stevenson, the prep player they picked last year, was charged with statutory rape of a 14-year-old girl. And the Pistons got a bust in Korleone Young, who was dumped -- are you ready for this? -- after three games. Three games. Then there are teams like Toronto and Indiana that still are waiting for their preps-to-the-pros experiments, Jonathan Bender and Al Harrington, to prove they are worthy of first-round picks. Harrington averaged 7.5 points and 4.9 rebounds last season, and Bender averaged 3.3 points playing about 10 minutes a game. Nevertheless, teams like the Wizards, Bulls and Cavs are forging ahead, jumping into the draft's great unknown feet first and, presumably, with fingers crossed. Maybe one of them has landed the next Kobe Bryant or Kevin Garnett. Maybe one has gotten a player whowi ll turn the franchise around. They just better not be in a hurry to find out.
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Times columns today From the Times Sports page Darrell Fry Rays NBA draft Sports etc. |
