Fast-forward: Who will it be?

By ERIC DEGGANS

© St. Petersburg Times, published July 5, 2000

Okay, this is getting ridiculous.

Though readers and I have agreed on almost every prediction about who would get the boot from everyone's favorite castaways-stranded-with-cameras TV show, CBS' Survivor has managed to confound us all.

Last week, it was dairy farmer Dirk Been who took the long walk, the casualty of an alliance among Tagi teammates Richard, Susan and Kelly. Of course, there was no way to predict this, since the producers had previously played up friction between Richard and Sean, the latter a neurologist whose fascination with a makeshift fishing pole and bowling alley he built has swelled to unsettling proportions.

If anything seems certain about summer hit Survivor -- other than the fact that CBS' ratings-challenged The Early Show would move production to the island of Pulau Tiga if that would help cash in on the series' popularity -- it's that the show's editors and producers are master manipulators.

Which leads this critic to a new proposition: Rather than waste time trying to figure out which way they're misdirecting us each week, why not go for the whole enchilada right now?

Because I'll be heading to Los Angeles on assignment for three weeks (and might -- gasp! -- miss an episode), I'm asking readers to predict the big winner now.

Will it be conniving corporate trainer Richard? Or kooky Greg, handed an advantage by the voices that seem to speak to him from his Gilligan's Island-inspired coconut phone?

And since the response to our little Survivor game hasn't been overflowing the ol' mailbox, I'll toss in another inducement: Once this winner is revealed Aug. 23, I'll hold a drawing among the correct entrants for a prize.

The winner will get a goody basket filled with all the freebies I'll collect during three weeks of press conferences in Los Angeles (past swag, previously given to charity or used as contest prizes, has included a cellular telephone, digital memo machine, luggage, California wine, CDs and lots of T-shirts).

As always, entries can come by e-mail: Floridian@sptimes.com; fax is (727) 892-2327; snail mail:

"SURVIVOR WINNER," Eric Deggans, St. Petersburg Times, P.O. Box 1121, St. Petersburg, FL 33731.

You have until July 12 to provide faxes and e-mails; letters must be postmarked by that date. Make sure you provide contact information such as name, address and telephone number. No telephone calls, please.

Prompted by a foolhardy bravado that can come only from being wrong so many times before, here's my prediction for the big winner: 38-year-old Gretchen Cordy (and not because ousted teammate Ramona Gray called her a "survivor" during a recent interview).

From the beginning, I'd picked Gretchen as a likely survivor, thanks to an appealing combination of kindness, steely determination and no-nonsense effectiveness. Now it's time to see what you think.

Already, we've gotten some interesting opinions from local viewers, including one who offered a succinct prediction for the next ejection: "The whole show. What a waste."

Of course, since another respondent publicly admitted feigned disinterest in the show, only to watch in private, it seems Survivor fans can be as sneaky as the series itself. No wonder so many of us can't help ourselves.