State: One's running; two's a crowd

TAMPA -- Bill McBride stood in the lobby of the Wyndham Harbour Island Hotel last week, pumping the hand of state Rep. Arthenia Joyner and boasting how he had won over a crowd of teachers the night before. Tsk-tsk for his gubernatorial rivals planning to woo the same teachers' union later, McBride clucked.

"I think I signed up everyone so there'll be slim pickings," said McBride, who is running fast and hard in what's shaping up as a crowded Democratic primary in 2002.

"Early bird gets the worm!" exulted Joyner.

The 56-year-old McBride is trying to gain an early edge over a ghost of an opponent, U.S. Rep. Jim Davis. Davis hasn't declared his candidacy for governor but has been putting out feelers.

That would mean two moderate Democrats from Tampa, both lawyers and both white, with support in the same circles, would be competing for the same financial backing and votes in Hillsborough County.

Is this town big enough for both of them?

Plenty of well-placed Democrats are hoping that one drops out so they're not burdened with choosing Tampa's favorite son.

"Will that be uncomfortable? Absolutely," said Chris Griffin, a Tampa lawyer and former regional chair for the Gore campaign. "It's an interesting dynamic for our community."

McBride's and Davis' campaign platforms probably would not be distinct enough to draw from different pools of voters, say many Democrats. And without much political muscle at home, even a candidate for statewide office starts the race with a limp.

That is particularly true in Hillsborough, which lies along the I-4 corridor, a critical mid-state swath of voters with changeable party allegiance. And since this is the first election without the possibility of a runoff, because of a new state law, neither candidate will have a second chance to compete.

"To me, having two candidates coming out of the I-4 corridor would be a serious mistake," said Mike Scionti, Hillsborough Democratic Party chairman, "because they tend to take away money/support from each other."

Consider 1964, when two moderates from northeast Florida -- then-state legislators Fred Karl from Daytona Beach and Jack Mathews from Jacksonville -- battled for the Democratic nomination for governor. Both won the hearts of the same constituency and split the vote. Of six Democratic candidates, Mathews finished fifth. Karl was last.

That helped propel to victory Democrat Haydon Burns, a man who was anything but a moderate. Burns' campaign slogan, "A man's home is his castle," was code for pro-segregation.

"We competed for basically the same votes . . . and it just killed us," said Karl, who is supporting McBride and worries that history will repeat itself if Davis jumps in. "I think it would be a disaster if they both run, especially since there's no runoff. They'll just diminish each other's votes."

McBride, who has never run for public office, resigned this spring as managing partner of Holland & Knight, the state's largest law firm, and has taken a leave of absence to organize his campaign.

Long a downtown Tampa insider, McBride is married to Adelaide "Alex" Sink, the former president of Bank of America's Florida operations. For months, he has courted Hillsborough's movers and shakers. Among those who have publicly hitched their names to his sail are civil rights attorney Warren Hope Dawson, former U.S. Rep. Sam Gibbons, County Commissioner Tom Scott and former Tampa Mayor Sandy Freedman (who lost to Davis in the 1996 Democratic primary for the congressional seat).

Griffin, however, says some Democrats are staying quiet until know Davis' intentions.

"There's a lot of people out there that you haven't heard about because they're waiting for Jim," said Griffin, who said he'll support the congressman.

Some political observers say McBride has gotten a jump on Davis, who is a thousand miles away serving in Congress -- and still undecided.

"There's a lot of advantages to getting off the mark early . . . with momentum as defined by financial support and coalition support and general perceptions of the candidate to grow and compete," said Adam Goodman, a campaign consultant who has advised St. Petersburg Mayor Rick Baker and Secretary of State Katherine Harris. "The jury is out on whether Jim (Davis) will pull the trigger and if he enters the combat too late."

Davis, 43, says he will make a decision around Labor Day. In the meantime, he has been quietly trying to line up backers. Last weekend, Davis was in Jacksonville, meeting with school superintendents about "how to fix the mess with our public schools," he said. He also has made trips to South Florida.

Davis says his successful effort in the House to win a moratorium on oil drilling off Florida's west coast has put him behind in exploring a race for governor. But, "I'm doing my job," he said, "and that's one of the ways people will judge me."

McBride, who lives in Thonotosassa in eastern Hillsborough, is casting himself as a mediator. He says decisions stemming from Tallahassee should be "more inclusive" and not a "cram-down style of governing." He says Florida needs a long-term plan for development, and he worries about low wages.

A number of influential Democrats, Scionti among them, say the Democratic party could suffer if Davis gives up his congressional seat to run for governor.

"To me, his direction should be the United States Senate," Scionti said, "whereas with Bill McBride, we're not sacrificing anything -- he's not in office."

Backing a candidate who may not turn out to be a candidate has some Davis supporters sounding like they're hedging.

"If Jim decides to run, I'm certainly going to have a hard time not supporting him," said David de la Parte, a Tampa health law attorney whose father, Louis, was state senator of Tampa. But he added, "I would not look forward to a crowded field."

Sebastian "Buster" Agliano, who owns Agliano & Son's Fish Co. in Ybor City and is well-connected politically, supports Davis, too. Yet, "I'm not discouraging him or encouraging him to run. It's a very tough decision."

McBride, for his part, is confident he will carry Hillsborough. "I've concentrated in the last couple of weeks on this area because I think it's going to be important to show strength."

But at the same time, the former Marine captain seems to play down Tampa's clout. He is increasingly bopping around the state. Last Thursday he was in Orlando, on Friday, Gainesville.

"I want to be elected governor," McBride said. "I don't want to be elected delegate from Tampa Bay."

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Lucy Morgan

From the Times state desk