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President Bush and President Vicente Fox tackle weighty issues, even as Bush targets the growing Latino vote in 2004.
By PAUL DE LA GARZA
© St. Petersburg Times, published July 30, 2001
WASHINGTON -- Whether the issue is granting amnesty to illegal Mexican immigrants or allowing Mexican trucks to rumble across U.S. highways, Mexico, as the Washington Post put it last week, "is the hot country."
If there's any doubt, consider that the guest of honor at the first state dinner of the Bush administration Sept. 5 will be President Vicente Fox.
While the United States and Mexico have enjoyed a special relationship within the past decade -- certainly since implementation of the North American Free Trade Agreement, or NAFTA, in January 1994 -- they're getting even closer under these two former governors.
Unthinkable only a few years ago, for example, is an exchange program announced last week between the justice departments of both countries.
A Mexican prosecutor will be assigned to the Criminal Division in the Department of Justice in Washington and a U.S. prosecutor will be assigned to the Mexican Attorney General's Office in Mexico.
Referring to U.S.-Mexico relations under the Bush administration, John Bailey, director of the Mexico Project at Georgetown University, said, "I think there's something new."
There is, he said, "a new candor."
As he jostles with countries like China and Russia, it's no wonder President Bush keeps returning to Mexico. Because of his Texas roots, he feels particularly comfortable there. And perhaps more than any other foreign leader, Bush considers Fox a friend.
Without question, both men are trying to tackle weighty issues like drug trafficking and illegal immigration, but behind all this, there is also Bush's re-election strategy. At least in the eyes of White House operatives, Bush needs Mexico.
As he eyes the growing Latino voting bloc in 2004, the president is bent on fixing the anti-immigrant image of the Republican Party.
Latinos, particularly Mexican-Americans, were left with a sour taste after the tenure of California Republican Gov. Pete Wilson.
In 1994, Wilson successfully pushed for Proposition 187, an initiative denying schooling and other services to undocumented workers. Latinos were also offended by the anti-Mexico rhetoric of one-time presidential candidate Pat Buchanan.
According to early data from the 2000 Census, the number of Hispanics soared to 35.3-million from the 22.4-million recorded in 1990. In contrast, the number of blacks rose to 34.7-million from the 30-million counted in the 1990 census.
In November, Bush won about a third of the Latino vote in the election. The numbers were similar to the Latino support his father, George H. Bush, and Republican presidential nominee Bob Dole received.
His pollsters, however, say that to win in 2004, the president will have to increase his share of the Latino vote to at least 40 percent.
Analysts call the Latino vote "the real prize," and the president has put his administration on notice.
In a speech last week, Mel Martinez, the secretary of Housing and Urban Development, said Bush had instructed his Cabinet to accommodate members of the Latin America press at news conferences. Martinez says he answers questions in English and Spanish. In May, Bush held a Cinco de Mayo celebration at the White House, and he delivered his weekly radio address in Spanish.
"He potentially has something to gain, and the Republican Party would have something to gain, if he managed to change that image," said Roderic Camp, a Mexico specialist at Claremont McKenna College in California.
Enter Mexico. Latino advocates have said that a recent White House proposal granting legal status to the estimated 3-million to 8-million illegal Mexicans living in the United States, the majority along the border, would give Bush a boost.
But not everyone is convinced.
Pollster John Zogby says Bush's biggest hurdle is that while Latinos do support Republican positions on issues like abortion, the death penalty and school vouchers, they tend to favor the Democratic philosophy of giving people a hand.
"I think you can maybe make the argument that the amnesty can begin the process of healing of 187 and Pat Buchanan," Zogby said. "But there's a but. The but is, again, it's only one small step and Latino voters are not one-issue voters."
Even within the Mexican-American community, there is dissent about granting illegal immigrants amnesty. In impoverished pockets of the border, some people argue that illegal immigrants take away much-needed jobs. Jealousy is but one aspect of the cross-border tussle.
The amnesty program, or "regularization," as the White House prefers, also risks alienating Bush's Republican base.
Dan Stein, executive director of the Federation for American Immigration Reform, which opposes the proposal, noted that the last major amnesty program in 1986 did little to win support for the GOP among Latinos. At the time, Ronald Reagan was president. "It's stupid politics," he said.
In Congress, the measure has met stiff opposition from Sen. Trent Lott, R-Miss., the minority leader, and Sen. Phil Gramm, R-Texas. They argue that the White House should not reward lawbreakers.
Democrats have called for an amnesty program that includes all illegal immigrant groups, not only Mexicans. On Thursday, Bush suggested an amnesty program might be expanded.
The previous administration did not ignore Mexico. Indeed, it was under former President Clinton that NAFTA, which generates $250-billion in two-way trade annually, went into effect.
And it was Clinton who helped bail Mexico after a peso crunch in December 1994 left the nation's economy reeling. Clinton, who visited Mexico twice as president, and former President Ernesto Zedillo also met regularly.
What Mexico watchers see under Bush, however, is a greater emphasis on the relationship. As one analyst put it, when it came to Mexico, Clinton was a pro at focusing on one issue and then moving on to 25,000 others around the world.
With Bush, Mexico is almost home. His sister-in-law, Gov. Jeb Bush's wife Columba, was born in Mexico. He has traveled there regularly, speaks Spanish and has oil ties to the country. In February, Bush made Mexico his first trip abroad as president, declaring "a new day in the relationship between America and Mexico."
But the president doesn't get all the credit for the glowing reviews of U.S.-Mexico relations.
Analysts say Fox has been able to embrace Bush because he is not a member of the long-ruling Institutional Revolutionary Party, or PRI, which for decades spewed anti-American rhetoric. A member of the Catholic-influenced National Action Party, or PAN, Fox is not wedded to the old guard. "With the PRI gone," said Bailey, the Georgetown professor, "Fox is able to operate without the old taboos."
The PRI governed Mexico for 71 years.
It lost the presidency to Fox last year.
In a windfall to the bilateral relationship, analysts think Fox's victory helped ease anti-Mexico sentiment in Congress among members who saw the PRI as notoriously corrupt. The PRI was infamous for rigging elections. With the Fox win, however, critics were able to see democracy at work.
Now they're seeing Fox's political acumen.
While observers describe Fox as the Tony Blair of the Western Hemisphere, serving as a bridge to Central America and South America, others argue that he is taking advantage of Bush because he knows Bush needs Latino support. Stein, for one, charged Fox with "bullying" the president.
Critics point to Fox's aggressiveness in calling for what amounts to an open border. The Mexican president, however, made better treatment of illegal Mexican immigrants a campaign pledge.
In a speech a few weeks ago at a National Council of La Raza conference in Milwaukee, Fox, among other things, said he wanted easier access to higher education and drivers' licenses for Mexican workers living in the United States.
That probably won't happen any time soon.
No matter how strong the family ties and the friendship between Bush and Fox, American public opinion always tends to creep in.
Take the White House proposal to open the border to long-haul Mexican trucks in January. Last week, despite a veto threat by the president, the Senate voted overwhelmingly to support efforts to impose strict safety standards on Mexican trucks.
Needless to say, neither Bush nor Fox was very happy.