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Chantal pulls together, heads toward Yucatan
By Times staff and wire reports
© St. Petersburg Times,
published August 19, 2001
Chantal, the tropical storm that nearly fell apart three days ago, is expected to become a hurricane tonight and should enter the Gulf of Mexico by Tuesday.
It's too early to tell where Chantal will go once it reaches the gulf, but the storm would be a considerable distance from the Tampa Bay area.
The official forecast carries Chantal over the tip of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Monday as a strong Category 1 hurricane. It is expected to weaken as it passes over land, becoming a tropical storm again before it re-emerges into the gulf. Once it reaches the warm gulf waters, Chantal will likely become a hurricane again.
But Chantal's projected path remains uncertain, said forecaster Lixion Avila of the National Hurricane Center in Miami.
The hurricane center uses various computer models to make its forecasts. While most of its computer models show Chantal hitting the Yucatan Peninsula, one computer model that has been remarkably accurate this year shows Chantal veering more toward the north and entering the gulf through the Yucatan Channel between Mexico and Cuba.
"All indications are that, in three or four days, there will be a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico," Avila said.
On Saturday, Chantal was headed toward Jamaica after soaking small islands with heavy rains and leaving two dead in Trinidad. It was moving west at 25 mph, twice the speed of average storms. It had sustained winds of 60 mph extending outward for 145 miles from the storm center.
Authorities in Jamaica and the Cayman Islands posted tropical storm warnings and hurricane watches.
In Jamaica, boats along the island's south coast were ordered to return to port. A mass of dark clouds was moving toward Kingston on Saturday as 35 mph wind gusts swept through the seaside capital.
In the Caymans, tourists were advised to leave. Residents hurriedly stocked up on supplies because most stores are closed on Sundays.
Forecasters said the somewhat disorganized tropical storm was barreling through the Caribbean Sea so quickly that it was outrunning its own support system of clouds and rain.
But Chantal was expected to slow down and begin gathering power today in the western Caribbean.
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