Tampabay: Does subsidy for baseball have payoff?

Dunedin Mayor Tom Anderson is trying to brush up on his stadium economics. Baseball boosters have presented him with studies claiming spring training pumps more than $24-million yearly into the economies of places, such as Dunedin, which host teams.

Now based on some of those studies, Anderson is trying to figure out if the Toronto Blue Jays should be given up to a $1-million yearly subsidy to keep their spring training in town.

The huge economic boost purported by the studies on spring training would seem to justify spending the money to renovate Dunedin Stadium for the Jays.

But Anderson isn't sure he believes the studies. He thinks they might be inflated and they don't tell the whole story.

"Both reports I've seen have just studied the benefits of having the teams there," he says. "But they didn't consider any of the costs to the city in doing that."

Economic impact studies of spring training have been crucial in the recent public debate in Dunedin and in Clearwater as the two cities contemplate spending more than $28-million in state and local tax money to build new and improved spring training stadiums for the Blue Jays and the Philadelphia Phillies.

But as it turns out, Anderson and other local officials probably should be skeptical of such studies, several top sports economists told the Times last week.

If anything, measurable historical data indicate that spring training has only a minimal impact on Pinellas County's economy, says Philip Porter, an economics professor for the University of South Florida.

Porter suggests it is better to analyze past economic benefits of sports venues -- rather than gaze into a computerized crystal ball to project a stadium's future impacts.

"My crusade is to make people aware of the potential mistakes they're making with these kinds of studies," Porter said. "And when they realize they've made mistakes, to be honest about it. Or else they just say what they've got to say to see another stadium funded."

Porter has done previous analyses critical of the purported economic impact of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' Raymond James Stadium and the Super Bowl.

He recently analyzed hotel occupancy and taxable sales revenues in Pinellas since 1990. His goal was to see whether March spring training visitors boosted the local economy. He found that the economy has been improving over the past decade, despite a slump in attendance at spring training games.

He figured perhaps 2,450 nightly hotel rentals can be attributed yearly to the crowds going to spring training, which has an annual attendance in Pinellas of about 125,000. Porter estimates those room rentals account for less than $1-million to the local economy, which generates more than $1-billion in sales activity every March.

"It's a pathetic drop in the bucket," he said of spring training's impact on the local economy. "It's going to cost a lot more to borrow the money for the stadiums and pay for them than the stimulus for the local economy."

There are plenty of other reasons to be skeptical of economic studies that attribute huge financial benefits to sports stadiums, experts say. Among them:

A lot of economic impact studies touting huge payoffs from stadiums are "hired gun studies." Highly paid consultants -- who often aren't economists -- merely plug in numbers into complicated computer models to get desired numbers.

A lot of the studies -- including some done on spring training in Florida -- count dollars spent by local residents at the stadiums as "new" money generated by the sports venue. In reality, economists say, if the stadium wasn't there, the money probably would still be spent in the local economy, but for other entertainment like movies.

Spending attributed to sports stadiums may be inflated by special "multipliers" that may not be justified. For instance, one study on spring training for the Florida Sports Foundation more than tripled all of its results using such a multiplier, which several sports economists told the Times is grossly inflated.

"If they're (supporting spring training) on the claim that it's a good investment for economic development, then it's bogus," says Andrew Zimbalist, a nationally recognized sports economics expert and professor at Smith College in Massachusetts.

But, gosh, the numbers that some economic impact studies generate sure are alluring.

The Florida Sports Foundation spent more than $30,000 for one such study this spring. It estimated that spring training teams pump $24.5-million yearly into their local economies.

Based on surveys of 2,000 fans, the study also projected that spring baseball provides an economic boost of up to $490-million to the state's economy.

The Tampa Bay Regional Planning Council completed another study last fall that estimated Pinellas receives a $38-million injection from spring training.

A $125,000 computer model used for the study found that six weeks of spring training also supports about 975 jobs locally.

It's easy to find individual local business owners who believe those figures.

"I know it is a definite boost to our local economy, all around town," says Tamara Helms, owner of Iris's Family Restaurant, across the street from Dunedin Stadium, where the Blue Jays train. "If the games are sold out, I'm packed."

Some officials in Dunedin and Clearwater also endorse such studies and the argument public funds therefore should be spent to subsidize the teams.

Dunedin City Manager John Lawrence, who has been negotiating to keep the Blue Jays in his city for another 15 to 20 years, says economic benefits from the team are a primary concern for him. His city is considering spending up to $3-million for renovations to the Jays' stadium and is seeking $9-million more in state and county money for the project.

Clearwater Commissioner Bob Clark -- one of the Phillies' biggest supporters -- also tersely dismisses anyone who would doubt the economic benefits of spring training here.

Clearwater is finishing its negotiations to spend more than $5-million to build the Phillies a new spring training stadium, also using $14-million from the state and county governments and $3-million from the Phillies.

Clark points to how his parents moved to Clearwater in part because spring training was here. Two of his neighbors also settled here because of interests in baseball, he says.

"I get tired of these bozos saying the Phillies have no impact on our economy," Clark says. "That's just absurd."

Regardless of fan spending, Clark notes, the Phillies say they spend $5-million directly in the local economy for salaries and all the other expenses related to their Florida operations here.

Anderson, Dunedin's mayor, says he wouldn't dare say that spring training has no effect on his city's economy. But having studied up on the issues, he points to a recent University of Maryland study that stadiums don't have as great an economic impact as sports promoters allege.

Two Maryland professors recently analyzed 37 cities where professional sports stadiums were constructed from 1969 to 1996.

They found individuals' income in the cities rose by $67, due to increased spending after the stadiums were built. But taxes also went up by $73 as a result of the public financing for the arenas.

"You actually get a reduction in personal income" where stadiums are built, says one of the Maryland professors, Dennis Coates.

However, Coates adds, "We found that loss in income is what people are willing to give up on average to have professional sports near them. The evidence is that people just get a lot of enjoyment out of it. The real benefit is how much happier they are."

And that's a consideration in Clearwater, says Clearwater Beach motel owner Daryl Seaton, who notes spring training accounts for perhaps 10 percent of his business in the spring.

"But if the Phillies left, we'd be known as the place that lost spring training, all across the country," Seaton says. "I think that's what would really hurt.

"It's the same thing as why does Tampa go out for Super Bowls? We really don't need the business in January. We're full. What we enjoy is the exposure, and that's why we go after it."

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