State: Florida voters on hot seat

With former U.S. Attorney General Janet Reno big-footing every other Democrat who wants to unseat Jeb Bush, the 2002 race for governor finds the state hot-wired to the cable networks, leading fundraisers and late-night comics.

But if 2000 exposed unreliable voting equipment and a state split down the middle in its preference for president, 2002 might reveal deeper truths about the state's psyche.

Is Florida different from the place that elected a conservative Jeb Bush in a 1998 landslide?

Is it as divided as the presidential election showed, where both parties can claim razor-thin wins? Was Al Gore's 537-vote loss a sign that Floridians are ready to elect Democrats with regularity?

Is it a Republican or Democratic state? Or both?

"It's a really split state," says Dave Beattie, a Democratic pollster. "It leans Republican, but it's a very slight leaning."

Fourteen months before the main event, Attorney General Bob Butterworth foresees another cliffhanger.

"I think this race is going to be won or lost by 200,000 votes on either side, unless someone makes a gigantic blunder," the Democrat said.

The battle for the Governor's Mansion goes far beyond questions about a Bush dynasty or Reno's record in Washington. Interviews with more than a dozen political leaders, pollsters and grass-roots activists suggest it will measure Florida's shifting political character.

In Bush, voters will see a Republican governor who has restructured the education system and created a voucher program for students in failing schools. He has cut taxes and eliminated some civil service protections for state employees, and has sought to privatize some state government duties. Less government is better, he says.

Democrats complain Bush is recklessly taking the state backward. They oppose vouchers and the elimination of the state Board of Regents, and they claim Bush has grabbed for power. They suggest Bush's tax cuts have robbed the state budget of money needed for schools and social services.

The backdrop of the campaign is the festering anger from the disputed presidential vote. Some African-Americans in particular remain convinced the Republicans stole the election. Their votes will be crucial for Democrats to compete in a state where Democrats narrowly outnumber Republicans but where voters have elected a GOP-dominated state Legislature and executive branch.

"This should be decided on the issues, rather than vengeance, but that's going to happen," says Republican state Sen. Alex Villalobos of Miami.

Democrats are demanding "payback" and regard Reno, President Clinton's U.S. attorney general, as the one heavyweight who can match Bush's star power and fundraising ability while keeping the national media focus squarely on Florida.

"A lot of people see this as an opportunity to go after George W.," says state Rep. Chris Smith, a Democrat who represents a predominantly black Fort Lauderdale district and endorsed Jeb Bush in 1998, a decision he came to regret. "There's a big buzz around here."

Yet Reno can easily be labeled a liberal, and is the favorite to win the Democratic nomination despite more than a decade of efforts to move the party to the center to attract moderate, white male voters.

Reno, 63, opposes offshore drilling. She opposes school vouchers. She supports abortion rights, has advocated licensing handgun owners and is personally opposed to the death penalty, although she notes she aggressively sought death sentences during her 15 years as the Miami-Dade state attorney.

Some Democrats also fear that Reno would force her rivals to turn back the clock and relive old battles: Waco, Elian Gonzalez and Al Gore's campaign fundraising practices that Reno decided did not warrant a special prosecutor's probe.

The perception of Reno-as-liberal runs deepest in the Panhandle, the section of the state where Republicans regularly bury Democrats at the polls.

"Up here, she's going to get eaten alive," says John Robert Middlemas, a Panama City insurance broker who served in the Florida House in the early 1970s and remains active in Democratic politics. "It's the Clinton thing. She's perceived as, you know, liberal, and up here that doesn't do you any good."

Middlemas sees Bush as very hard to beat. He went by to see the governor recently when he cut a ribbon for a new AutoNation car dealership on U.S. 98, and watched as Bush, in touting his mentoring program for children, introduced a young African-American girl.

"I was very impressed with Bush. He handles himself well," Middlemas said. "I think he's going to be hard to beat."

With high wattage name recognition, Reno dominates a field that includes four lesser-knowns: House Democratic leader Lois Frankel of West Palm Beach, Sen. Daryl Jones of Miami, Tampa lawyer Bill McBride and former congressman and former U.S. ambassador to Vietnam Pete Peterson.

"Any Democrat, to beat Bush, has to campaign on the broad themes of the direction of the state. The debate really has to be about Bush's record. That's where her biggest problem comes," says pollster Beattie, president of Hamilton Beatty & Staff, a polling firm not yet hired by any candidate for governor. "If it becomes a battle of two records, that buys Bush some cover. Then he can try to attach to her a slew of things dealing with Clinton."

Frank Greer, a Washington media consultant who expects to be hired by Reno, says voters would respond well to Reno because she plainly speaks her mind.

"Florida is a moderate state, kind of independent," Greer said. "It's not a party-label kind of state."

Karen Unger, Bush's campaign manager, called the governor "confident, but not complacent." Of his rivals, she said: "I would hope the candidates would have more to offer to the people of Florida than a rehash of a previous election."

Polls show most Floridians have made up their minds about Bush and Reno -- an anomaly in a state where most people are from someplace else and have few ties to state and local politics. A Schroth & Associates poll of 600 voters for the Miami Herald in May showed only 9 percent had no opinion about Bush's performance and 8 percent had no opinion of Reno.

"Name recognition is a two-edged sword," says Dario Moreno, a political scientist at Florida International University and a registered Republican. "It means people have made up their minds about you. And once they have made up their minds, it's very difficult to change those perceptions."

Bill Ulrich, Bay County's Democratic state committeeman and a retired Air Force colonel, worries that Reno would be so weakened by attacks that she could not beat Bush. Ulrich favors Peterson, but worries that his candidate will be trapped in Reno's shadow.

"He doesn't have anywhere near the political experience that she has," Ulrich said. "We're talking about a little boy in a college crowd."

The latest successful model for a Democratic statewide candidate is Bill Nelson, whose convincing U.S. Senate victory last November was obscured by the presidential deadlock.

Nelson beat Republican Bill McCollum in 38 of 67 counties, including six deep Panhandle counties where Nelson ran strongly ahead of Gore. Nelson campaigned heavily in those counties, where he also has the benefit of a deep family history that helped him connect with voters as a home-grown Floridian.

Florida Attorney General Bob Butterworth, who was elected statewide four times, says Reno should use Nelson, not Gore, as a model.

"I think she should take that red truck of hers to the Panhandle, and I think she will," Butterworth said. "And when she drives into that small town, what sort of reception will she get? That's going to be very important."

- Tallahassee bureau chief Lucy Morgan and researcher Caryn Baird contributed to this report.

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