Perspective: Republicans might be grateful for a Gore victory

The day after the November election, things could look bleak for the Republicans. Most of the political advantages they accumulated during Ronald Reagan's presidency and Newt Gingrich's revolution could be lost. They haven't occupied the White House in eight years, but they have controlled the Congress since 1995 and held on to a thin conservative majority on the U.S. Supreme Court. In this year's voting, their grip on the legislative and judicial branches could be in jeopardy. Much could depend on whether George W. Bush can pull out of his political stall and win the White House.

This is the GOP's worst nightmare: Al Gore is elected president, Democrats regain control of the U.S. House of Representatives and Republicans barely hold on to their Senate majority by a two- or three-vote margin. With such an outcome, Democrats would have the political upper hand in Washington. In a Democratic-controlled House, some of that body's most liberal members are in line to become chairmen of key committees. Even more disturbing to Republicans, the next president is likely to appoint two or three U.S. Supreme Court justices, and if the next president is Al Gore, they expect him to nudge the court to the left on such divisive issues as abortion, gay rights, school vouchers and affirmative action.

Elections are the way voters distribute power between the two major political parties. Which party do voters trust with the White House and the Congress? The answer has major implications for the third branch of government -- the judiciary. The party out of power has an opportunity every four years to reclaim the White House, and neither party can count on having a lock on Congress from one election to another. But federal judges, including Supreme Court justices, are appointed for life. A president's judicial appointments are his best chance to shape American society and effect the changes most chief executives lack the political will to press for.

Gore has suggested he would apply litmus tests in making key appointments. His nominations to the Supreme Court would have to support abortion rights, including the controversial partial-birth abortion procedure; he has said he would expect the military leaders he named to the Joint Chiefs of Staff to support his promise to lift the ban on gays in the military. If Gore is elected, you can expect some nasty confirmation hearings.

A Gore victory would be painful for Republicans, who would see it as Bill Clinton's third term. But it could have a political upside in the long run. If the economy starts going sour, better that it happen on Gore's watch than Bush's, else Republicans would be blamed for ruining the good times Americans have enjoyed under Clinton. It might be a long time before voters would again trust the Republicans with the economy.

This brings us to something that should temper the mood at Democratic victory parties: There's a good chance that the next president will serve only one term, a victim of an economic downturn that raises the nation's misery index. Everyone knows that this economic boom cannot go on forever, and the only question is how severe the next recession will be. If Americans begin to feel economic pain, something they have not known in almost a decade, the incumbent president and his party will get the political blame.

It doesn't take much to disturb the public mood, even in a time of prosperity. Just listen to motorists complaining about the price of gasoline, which is still cheap by world standards -- cheaper than a gallon of bottled spring water. A real oil crisis, marked by fuel shortages and skyrocketing prices, could inflict hardship this winter and have a rippling effect throughout the economy, increasing inflation and unemployment and forcing the Federal Reserve to hike interest rates again. That could play havoc with the projected budget surpluses Gore is counting on to fulfill his promises to secure the solvency of Social Security, add a prescription drug benefit to Medicare and invest in education. There already are uneasy signs that Wall Street is losing its irrational exuberance and that menacing forces are stirring at home and abroad. Some things are beyond a president's control.

Does anyone really believe this amazing period of prosperity is without end? The next president, whoever he is, had better pray that the good times will just keep on rolling -- at least for four more years.

Back to Perspective

Contact the Times | Privacy Policy
Standard of Accuracy | Terms, Conditions & Copyright

From the Times
Opinion page