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The goal is to create an internal coalition for political and military support and potentially much more, but the strategy is rife with obstacles.
©New York Times
© St. Petersburg Times, published September 24, 2001
WASHINGTON -- The Bush administration is backing efforts to build an internal coalition in Afghanistan against Osama bin Laden and his Taliban supporters. The coalition could collect crucial intelligence, provide political support and cooperate militarily in the war on terrorism.
The United States has stepped up contacts with the Northern Alliance, a coalition also known as the United Front that has been fighting the Taliban.
The group controls only a sliver of territory in northern Afghanistan, and it suffered a grievous setback just days before the attacks in the United States, when its military leader was assassinated.
But it has fought back by carrying out an attack in Kabul and stepping up other operations in the north.
Recognizing the complex ethnic mix of Afghanistan, the United States has also initiated contacts with the Pashtuns, the dominant tribe in the south.
Enormous attention has been given to the need to build an external coalition involving nations such as Britain, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and others in the region. Britain, for instance, is expected to join the military operation.
Forging an internal coalition of ethnic groups that could increase the pressure on the Taliban government is just as crucial, though complex.
One reason for the effort is military. The United States needs allies inside Afghanistan who can help track bin Laden, and those Taliban leaders who shelter him, and provide information on possible targets of attack, as well as a possible base of operations in the country for U.S. forces. They could also do some of the fighting.
There are key political reasons as well to build a coalition inside Afghanistan. The administration is trying to counter the impression that the fight against bin Laden is a war against Afghanistan or Islam.
Administration officials also want to encourage the formation of a coalition that could govern Afghanistan after a war and bring some order to the region. The last thing Washington wants is a chaotic situation, which could create a haven for terrorists and destabilize neighboring Pakistan.
On Sunday, Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld indicated that the United States was trying to encourage defections within the Taliban's ranks, and that the defectors could become part of a new governing structure for Afghanistan.
"Some of the Taliban say, 'Well, it could get uncomfortable supporting those people, so I think I'll shift sides,' " Rumsfeld said on CBS's Face the Nation.
Efforts to form a grand coalition involve the 86-year-old former king of Afghanistan, Mohammad Zahir Shah, who lives in Rome and has been meeting with representatives of the Northern Alliance. The exiled king is a Durrani Pashtun, like the Taliban leaders. There has speculation that he could serve as the symbolic head of a broad group that would include other Afghans who are not Pashtuns.
Mostapha Zahir, the 37-year-old grandson of the king, said in a telephone interview from Rome that the king was willing to serve as a rallying point for the Afghans but had no intention of trying to re-establish the monarchy. He said the king planned to meet this week with commanders from the Northern Alliance and other groups.
There are, however, many obstacles to the effort to form a grand coalition, including tensions among the ethnic groups. Dr. Abdullah Abdullah, foreign minister of the Northern Alliance, recently blamed Pakistan, which has close ties to the Pashtun tribes that would supposedly be in the grand coalition.
John Moore, who until last year was the chief Middle East analyst at the Defense Intelligence Agency, said: "People have talked about this as a great alliance, but that's going to be subject to fractious politics. This is not going to be an easy or quick process."
Influential lawmakers in Washington have been briefed on the administration's emerging strategy to encourage the creation of a pan-Afghan coalition to combat the Taliban government.
"It could be very useful if it can hold together," said Sen. Carl Levin, D-Mich., who heads the Armed Services Committee and who refused to divulge details of the briefings. "In the past, there have been such differences among the groups, it's been difficult. It'll take a special effort, and I'm glad the administration is looking at it."
Washington's efforts to encourage an anti-Taliban coalition are coming in the midst of continuing military preparations. Administration officials said a CIA reconnaissance drone had crashed in Afghanistan. The Taliban claimed on Saturday that it was shot down, but U.S. officials said the unmanned aircraft was gathering intelligence and might simply have crashed.
The Northern Alliance, one of the anti-Taliban groups, is dominated by Tajiks and Uzbeks, and has 10,000 to 15,000 fighters. It draws financial support from Iran and weapons from Russia. It lost its military leader, Ahmed Shad Massoud, when two suicide assassins posing as journalists set off a bomb in his presence. He died of the wounds several days later.
U.S. intelligence officials now say the attack on Massoud was orchestrated by bin Laden. The aim was to decapitate the leadership of the primary anti-Taliban resistance, they say, depriving the Bush administration of the group's full force.
The Northern Alliance showed that it is still capable of fighting, by mounting an attack Sunday in Kabul and stepping up other operations.
The Pentagon seems to be counting on their help. Rumsfeld has talked openly about a military collaboration with the alliance.
"These folks, they know the lay of the land," Rumsfeld said Friday, referring to the Northern Alliance. "They know, in some cases, some targets that are useful. They have ideas about how to deal with the Taliban. I think that one has to say that they can be useful in a variety of ways."
A coalition would help the United States balance the interests of its outside partners. The Iranians and the Russians, for example, are supporting the Northern Alliance. The Iranians also have ties to the Hazaras, another minority. The Pakistanis have ties with the Pashtuns.
A final reason for the administration's attempts to forge relations with disparate groups inside Afghanistan is its desire to portray its impending military campaign as a fight against terrorism, not against the Afghan people or against Islam.