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Mets don't have answer for Mac

By BRUCE LOWITT

© St. Petersburg Times, published October 11, 2000

ST. LOUIS -- The specter of Mark McGwire on the Cardinals bench is "the X-factor" for Mets manager Bobby Valentine as the teams prepare for tonight's opener in the NL Championship Series.

McGwire, plagued by knee problems, has not started at first base since July 6. After coming off the disabled list Sept. 8, he batted .333 (5-for-15) with a pair of home runs, five times as a pinch-hitter and the rest, technically, as a starter; he was written into the lineup, batted in the first inning, then was replaced in the field. He also homered as a pinch-hitter against the Braves in the division series.

"I suspect he'll be used that one at-bat (as a pinch-hitter) in any situation during the game that could give them an advantage offensively," Valentine said. "He's without a doubt a force. I wouldn't be surprised if he hits for (Will) Clark , if the situation calls for it or if we have a left-hander out there, or if he hits for Ray (Lankford) or (Fernando) Vina."

Having McGwire on the bench makes the Cardinals less predictable, Valentine said, because "he's not just a guy in the (lineup card's) right-hand column for pinch-hitters." Valentine said he usually can figure out how a manager is going to use his pinch-hitters. "I think (McGwire's) role is defined only as a major offensive threat to be used at any time."

DAVIS IN; WHO'S OUT?: Cardinals manager Tony La Russa said he doesn't anticipate many lineup changes against the Mets' left-handed pitching "because our left-handed hitters really hang in there well and are tough outs" against southpaws.

"The moves you would expect would be Eric Davis" in rightfield for tonight's game. Davis bats right-handed and "he has been very, very successful against left-handed pitching and gives us a real threat in the middle of the lineup."

If he were making out a lineup Tuesday night, La Russa said, he would have had Davis bat fourth, between Jim Edmonds and Clark, dropping Clark one spot in the order, because Davis "has got some respect from (the Mets) unless they are not paying attention, and I know they are."

"He has had some success against (Mets Game 1 starter Mike) Hampton," La Russa said. "He's been tough against left-handers. He is not going to be afraid ... so that would be the one change we would make."

Leftfield "is up in the air," La Russa said, because it is Ray Lankford's position but J.D. Drew also has played it well. Each bats left-handed.

HEADING TO STEELTOWN?: Mike Easler, La Russa's batting coach the past two seasons, interviewed for 21/2 hours over the weekend for the Pirates managing job, vacant since Gene Lamont was fired the day after Pittsburgh finished its 69-93 season.

Easler, who played for Pittsburgh for six of his 14 seasons, managed the Nashua Pride of the independent Atlantic League in 1998. The team finished 59-41, and seven of his players were signed by major-league teams.

A WIN-WIN SITUATION: No matter whether New York or San Francisco won their division series, La Russa said he came out a winner.

"If the Mets win, we get to start the (championship) series at home," La Russa said. "If the Giants win, I get to see my favorite ladies." He and his wife, Elaine, and their daughters, Bianca Tai, 21, and Devon Kai, 18, live in Danville, Calif., a San Francisco suburb. "I probably pick the ladies over Busch Stadium. Ain't no probably; I would."

NCLS capsules

METS VS. CARDINALS

REGULAR SEASON: Mets -- 94-68; Cardinals -- 95-67.

FIRST ROUND: Mets beat Giants 3-1; Cardinals swept Braves.

WHY THE METS WILL WIN: They took six of nine from St. Louis during the season, outscoring the Cardinals 43-31 and outhomering them 14-9. New York is winning despite Mike Piazza's inability to break out of a September-October slump. Starting pitching is strong, and closer Armando Benitez owns the Cardinals. Benitez has held players on the St. Louis roster this season to five singles in 57 career at-bats (.088) with 28 strikeouts.

WHY THE METS WILL LOSE: The Cardinals won't be running wild, but they can take advantage of Piazza, who has thrown out 23 percent of runners attempting to steal. Benitez, for all his numbers against the Cardinals, is prone to giving up big home runs in the post-season. The Mets will feel the loss of Derek Bell, out for the post-season with a sprained ankle. Todd Zeile (1-for-14) and Robin Ventura (2-for-14) have slumped in the playoffs.

WHY THE CARDINALS WILL WIN: Sweeping the Mets in a late-season series in St. Louis, two of them walk-off wins on Jim Edmonds home runs, washed away the bad taste of earlier losses. Will Clark brings leadership and post-season experience. The Cardinals know they can get to the Mets pitchers, having beaten up the Braves pitchers for 24 runs in three games, and their projected first-game lineup has a .459 career batting average against the Mets' Mike Hampton.

WHY THE CARDINALS WILL LOSE: Mark McGwire on the bench as a pinch-hitter robs their lineup of three or four of his at-bats. The pitching rotation, strong most of the season, faded in the stretch. Rick Ankiel staggered (a record five wild pitches) in the playoff opener vs. Atlanta, and division series Game 3 starter Garrett Stephenson is out for the year with elbow tendinitis.

SEASON SERIES: Mets won 6-3.

PITCHING MATCHUPS: Game 1 -- Mets LHP Mike Hampton (15-10, 3.14 ERA) vs. Cardinals RHP Darryl Kile (20-9, 3.91); Game 2 -- Mets LHP Al Leiter (16-8, 3.20, 200 Ks) vs. Cardinals LHP Rick Ankiel (11-7, 3.50); Game 3 -- Mets RHP Rick Reed (11-5, 4.11) vs. Cardinals RHP Andy Benes (12-9, 4.88); Game 4 -- Mets RHP Bobby J. Jones (11-6, 5.06) vs. Cardinals RHP Pat Hentgen (15-12, 4.72).

FINAL WORD: New York has a recent history of winning late-inning thrillers (two of its wins against San Francisco were in extra innings) and of finding inexplicable ways to win. The Mets faced this pressure a year ago vs. Atlanta. After losing all four games at San Francisco during the season, they ended the Giants' home-field advantage by splitting the first two. New York will not be intimidated by the Busch Stadium crowd, either.

BRUCE LOWITT'S PREDICTION: Mets in 6.

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