© St. Petersburg Times, published October 24, 2001
ISLAMABAD, Pakistan -- Muslim allies are pressuring the United States to score a major victory on the ground before the Islamic holy month Ramadan begins around Nov. 17 or agree to a lengthy delay in the Afghan operation.
"Emotionally, it will be, I think, explosive ... if military actions are still being done in Afghanistan" during Ramadan, Indonesia's foreign minister, Hasan Wirayuda, warned Sunday during a meeting of Asia-Pacific leaders.
Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf, perhaps the strongest Muslim backer of the air campaign against Afghanistan, has also warned of a Muslim backlash if intense fighting continues during Ramadan.
Monday on CNN, Musharraf said he hoped "that this campaign comes to an end before the month of Ramadan, and one would hope for restraint during the month of Ramadan."
Such a delay, however, would cost the United States considerable momentum at a critical period. By the end of Ramadan, the harsh Afghan winter will have set in, closing key passes through the mountains and limiting air and ground operations.
Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld has played down the Ramadan factor, maintaining there is no deadline for completing U.S. military action in Afghanistan.
"History is replete with instances where Muslim nations have fought among themselves or with other countries during various important holy days for their religion, and it has not inhibited them historically," he said Tuesday.
Not all Ramadans inspire the spirit of the Christmas truces of World War I, when some British and German soldiers swapped cigarettes and played soccer. The Egyptians and Syrians launched the 1973 war on Israel during Ramadan. And there's been no tradition of pausing for Ramadan during Afghanistan's civil war.
But to America's Muslim allies, Muslims fighting among themselves during Ramadan is one thing. Non-Muslims attacking Muslims is another matter, they say. The Pakistanis and others fear that opposition to the air campaign may increase if Muslim civilians are being killed during a time when their religion calls for prayer and reflection.
There is no guarantee that a stepped-up U.S. bombing campaign will crack the Taliban and their al-Qaida allies by the time Ramadan begins. Former Pakistani generals with long experience dealing with the Taliban warn that the Islamic militia will put up stiff resistance.
And the goal of bringing about a new, broad-based government in Afghanistan is not one that can be quickly arranged.
A fractious alliance of opposition groups has been battling the Taliban since 1996 with little progress. Pakistan and others have pressed for the Northern Alliance not to be allowed to take power for itself. When they ruled Kabul from 1992 to 1996, they destroyed most of the capital.
Musharraf has called for declaring Kabul a "no-go" area.
"I would go to the extent of saying that Kabul should be maintained as neutral zone," Musharraf said.