Democrats are honking but can't pass that red pickup

© St. Petersburg Times,
published October 28, 2001

Next year's gubernatorial election is not shaping up as a referendum on the disputed 2000 presidential vote in Florida, as Democrats had hoped. Osama bin Laden has seen to that. Since the Sept. 11 attacks on America, the political dynamics have changed and what already was going to be an uphill battle -- unseating Republican Gov. Jeb Bush -- has suddenly become even tougher. At this early stage, the problem for Democrats is that they appear more committed to nominating Janet Reno than to defeating Jeb Bush.

According to polls, Reno is the runaway favorite among Democratic primary voters over state House Democratic leader Lois Frankel of West Palm Beach, Tampa attorney Bill McBride and state Sen. Daryl Jones of Miami. The only problem is that the same polls show her getting trounced by Bush. A new poll conducted by the Florida Education Association found that if the election were held today, Bush would roll over Reno by a margin of more than two to one, 60 percent to 26 percent. The general election is still a year away, and the polls could tell a dramatically different story by then. But I wouldn't bet on it.

Reno, who owes her high name recognition to more than seven controversial years as Bill Clinton's attorney general, shrugs off the polls and continues to crisscross the state in her red pickup truck talking about how she knows how to make tough decisions (Waco and Elian, for example) and about her love of her native state, which no one doubts. Some of her primary opponents cling to the hope that Reno will do a reality check next spring and decide to drop out of the race if her poll numbers are still dismal. But they also know that Reno can be as stubborn as a rusty nail in a barn door.

Meanwhile, Frankel, McBride and Jones press forward as best they can. The political debate has been muted by the terrorism crisis, and most Floridians are more concerned about anthrax than politics. McBride is the big-time leader in the fundraising competition. In the latest campaign finance reports, McBride had raised more than $500,000, more than his three opponents combined. With the Florida Legislature in special session to deal with the state's budget crisis, Frankel has temporarily regained the spotlight as she leads the Democratic opposition in Tallahassee. Reno, however, doesn't need as much money as a relative unknown such as McBride. And she certainly has no problem commanding attention.

Frankel, the most knowledgeable candidate on the issues that should be at the center of next year's elections, sounds a little dispirited when she talks about what campaigning has been like since Reno entered the contest. "Reno sucks all of the oxygen out of the room" and gets most of the press attention at any campaign event, Frankel said. The other candidates stand in her shadow, frustrated and all but ignored.

Until last month, Pete Peterson, the former Vietnam POW and former congressman and former ambassador to Vietnam, appeared to be emerging as Reno's strongest challenger. But after the terrorist attack, Peterson, the favorite of party centrists, suddenly dropped out of the race, saying he wanted to find other ways to serve his state in this time of crisis.

With Peterson's withdrawal, McBride, former managing partner of Holland & Knight, one of the nation's largest law firms, has begun casting himself as the logical alternative to Reno. He has shown that he can raise big money -- not surprising given his connections in legal and business circles -- but he has yet to prove himself an effective campaigner. He is not a dynamic speaker (but neither is any of his opponents), and some Democrats think he may be too outspoken for his own good.

McBride believes he is the obvious heir to Peterson's centrist supporters. Frankel, however, scoffs at that notion. She says there is little difference on most issues among the four candidates. Daryl Jones, the only African-American in the race, may be the most conservative contender in the field, Frankel said, adding that McBride is the only candidate she has heard express support for gay marriage.

Maybe McBride can pull it off, maybe he can sell himself as a Pete Peterson centrist in Florida's Panhandle. Maybe social issues won't matter at a time when the nation is fighting a war against terrorism at home and abroad. McBride, after all, is a decorated Marine who saw combat in Vietnam. Also, McBride is from Central Florida, while his three opponents are from South Florida, a bastion of liberal Democrats. McBride probably figures that in the primary (there will be no runoff) he can make a respectable showing in South Florida and run ahead of his opponents in Central Florida and the Panhandle, the most conservative part of the state.

That sounds plausible enough, especially if Reno were to drop out. Frankel has her own script for surprising the keepers of conventional wisdom and political oddsmakers. Meanwhile, Reno continues to hog the road in her red pickup, and unless she pulls over, it's going to be hard for any of her opponents to pick up speed.

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