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U.S. sees red over Nicaraguan election
By DAVID ADAMS
© St. Petersburg Times, MANAGUA, Nicaragua -- The election TV spot showed a photograph of Osama bin Laden, toting an AK-47. "If he could vote in Nicaragua," the voiceover said, "he would vote for Comandante Daniel Ortega." It was a low blow. But in a tight election race being closely watched in Washington, it may just have done the trick. In any other circumstances this Sunday's general election in Nicaragua might not excite much interest abroad. Long gone are the Cold War days when Washington paid much attention to this part of the world. But Sept. 11 changed all that. With opinion polls showing strong support for Ortega, the former Sandinista revolutionary commander, the covers are coming off an old feud. In a country where electoral debate would otherwise be dominated by issues of poverty and political corruption, the Bush administration is trying to make terrorism the defining factor. Echoing the "either you are for us or against us" line that is the backbone of Washington's antiterrorism alliance, senior U.S. officials have gone out of their way to warn Nicaraguans of the consequences of electing Ortega. And, in a departure from normal rules of fair play, the United States is openly campaigning for Ortega's main rival, pro-U.S. businessman Enrique Bolanos. "I would be dishonest if I did not acknowledge that the possibility of a Sandinista victory is disconcerting to the U.S. government," said senior State Department official for Latin America, John F. Keane, in a speech last month. "We cannot forget the (Sandinista) history of trampling basic civil liberties and violating human rights," he added, referring to the decade after Nicaragua's famous 1979 revolution, when Ortega headed the government. "We cannot forget that Nicaragua became a haven for violent political extremists from the Middle East, Europe and Latin America." Although Ortega may still be regarded with suspicion in Washington, experts say the democratic climate in Nicaragua has changed. The Sandinistas survived the U.S.-backed Contra war in the 1980s, only to be defeated at the polls by a war-weary electorate in 1990. Since then the country had been led by an anti-Sandinista alliance of pro-U.S. political parties. After making a failed bid for election in 1996, Ortega is trying to make it third-time lucky. Now 55, the die-hard revolutionary who campaigned in 1990 as the "fighting cock," has undergone a political makeover. The once fiery anti-U.S. speeches have been replaced by softer tones -- and colors. In 1996, Ortega dumped his olive-green military uniform for flowing white cotton shirts and blue jeans. This year his campaign has taken it a step further, going all-out for a Pepto-Bismol-pink look. The color apparently reflects the influence of Ortega's new-age wife and campaign chief, Rosario Murillo, a poet with an unconventional taste in jewelry. Political banners proclaim a party that wants to make love not war, in the process taking Nicaraguans to "the promised land," with jobs, education and public health for all. Ortega still calls himself a socialist revolutionary, although he now claims Jesus as well as Karl Marx as his main inspirations. His political survival has astonished many Nicaraguans. Many of his former Sandinista comrades have abandoned him, describing him as an unrepentant autocrat. His brother and former Sandinista army chief, Humberto Ortega, advised him not to run. "What difference does it make what clothes he wears or what color?" asked former Sandinista vice president Sergio Ramirez. "Everybody knows who Daniel Ortega is. He's a political transvestite addicted to power." A highly acclaimed author who quit the party in 1992, Ramirez advises Nicaraguans to abstain from voting. "All we are faced with is two bad choices." After two consecutive electoral defeats, Ortega's reputation has been severely damaged by charges of sexual abuse filed against him by his stepdaughter, Zoilamerica Narvaez. She says Ortega had sex with her from the age of 11. Although her mother, the poet Murillo, has publicly disowned Narvaez, the charges are supported by several other relatives. "A year ago I didn't think he (Ortega) had a chance," said Gen. Joaquin Cuadra, the former chief of the Nicaraguan armed forces and an outspoken Ortega critic. "But he has run an excellent campaign. He has patiently put all the pieces in place." In many ways, Ortega's popularity -- he is polling around 37 to 40 percent -- is a reflection of the political and economic failures of the past decade. Despite spending an estimated $1.1-billion to support the restoration of democracy in Nicaragua, U.S. policymakers have little to show for their efforts. "It's just such a disaster for ordinary Nicaraguans," said George Vickers, a Latin America expert at the Washington Office on Latin America, a U.S. policy watchdog group. "Despite despisal of Ortega, poverty and corruption have brought people back to the Sandinistas." Much of the blame lies with the scandal-plagued government of out-going President Arnoldo Aleman. Critics point to a series of bank failures, in which several Aleman cronies are implicated in bad loans. Aleman and others are also accused of personal enrichment through misuse of public funds and the awarding of public contracts. Nicaraguan media reports exposed the construction of a 10-mile highway, built with $8-million in public funds, which conveniently connects several Aleman properties. Media reports also revealed how Aleman's coordinator for rural policy abused his post by buying up agricultural properties for the president. All of this has come to haunt Bolanos, who served as vice president for the past five years. Despite a personal reputation for honesty, he is accused of doing little to protect the public purse while heading a government commission on "transparency," or ethics. Ortega also carries some heavy personal baggage. Although he is participating in his third democratic election campaign, a large number of Nicaraguans still mistrust Ortega's political goals. They have not forgiven him for the alliance with the former Soviet Union and Cuba in the 1980s that resulted in a decadelong conflict with the U.S., which left the country in economic ruins. "They are playing the democratic game because they know it's the only way back to power," said Luis Fley, alias "Jhonson," a respected former Contra commander. "Daniel may think he looks pretty in pink, but we are not fooled." It was Fley and other ex-Contra fighters who visited Washington in April to sound the alarm over a potential Sandinista election victory. At the time Ortega was well ahead in the polls. In Washington, Fley was encouraged to find that many former Contra sympathizers from the Reagan years had returned to the corridors of power with the new Bush administration. Among them: Elliott Abrams, a former senior State Department official in the 1980s, now back with the National Security Council, and Otto Reich, the Bush administration's controversial candidate for the top Latin America post at the State Department. In June, a senior U.S. diplomat, Lino Gutierrez, was dispatched to Managua to begin the verbal assault. Speaking to a business group in Managua, he attacked Ortega's friendships with Cuba's Fidel Castro and Libya's Moammar Gadhafi. "Ortega still sees Castro as a shining light, as the example to be emulated in the hemisphere," he said. Around the same time, a third presidential candidate for the Conservative party dropped out amid talk of pressure from the United States. American officials admit they were concerned the Conservative candidate might split the anti-Sandinista vote, but deny any arm-twisting. After Sept. 11, Washington notably intensified its efforts. In a seemingly orchestrated campaign of speeches, several State Department officials have publicly expressed their worries about a possible Sandinista election victory. Tough-talking U.S. Ambassador Oliver Garza, a former drug cop, also started making public appearances with Bolanos, including an event to hand out U.S.-donated food aid to starving peasants. U.S. officials have highlighted Sandinista ties to a number of ultra-violent groups on the U.S. list of foreign terrorist organizations, including the Basque separatists, ETA, and the drug-tainted Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, or FARC. While most of these links are well in the past, the Colombia ties particularly worry U.S. officials. They point to one recent incident during an international peace meeting in Colombia, where Ortega decorated FARC leader Manuel "Sureshot" Marulanda with a medal of honor. The struggling Bolanos campaign wasted no time turning the U.S. attacks into political ammunition. A series of TV campaign spots showed the World Trade Center explosions, followed by photos of Ortega greeting Castro, Gadhafi and Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat. If Ortega was elected, the ads warned, the U.S. war against terrorism "could come here." Besides the bin Laden spot, phony banners also appeared with Ortega's signature, declaring, "I am Taliban. So what?" The U.S.-backed scare tactics appear to be working. After leading in the polls for months, Ortega appears to be slipping. One poll last week put Bolanos in front for the first time by a slim 1 percent. But most respected commentators say the attacks on Ortega are outdated and irresponsible. They argue the U.S. should be more concerned by the widespread poverty and rampant government corruption. Also, when it comes to terrorism, many Nicaraguans say that's what the United States practiced for years in trying to bring down the Sandinistas. "I don't see what threat Daniel Ortega represents to the U.S. Absolutely none," said Carlos F. Chamorro, a former Sandinista newspaper editor who now runs "Confidencial," a respected weekly newsletter. "He's a populist who is capable of taking his message to the street. But he's no threat to democratic institutions." Experts point out that an Ortega victory would mean little in economic terms. Since his revolutionary days ended, Ortega has embraced the free market. Nicaragua is also locked into an agreement with the International Monetary Fund to substantially reduce its massive $6-billion debt. The U.S. attacks on Ortega could also backfire if the election results are as close as polls predict. "The U.S. needs to be careful with our fragile institutions," said Cuadra, the retired general. "They could end up strengthening the hardline factions in the (Sandinista) Front." Last week the government braced the country for violence. Army troops were instructed to maintain order in the case of disturbances. Election observers warn the outcome could make Florida's confusing vote count last year pale by comparison.
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