State: Texan casts long shadow over brother

TALLAHASSEE -- With high popularity ratings and a Republican-led Legislature on his side, Gov. Jeb Bush has been considered almost invincible. The governor even spoofed his reputation last spring in a Tallahassee skit, wearing a crown and appearing as "King Jeb."

But now, with the Florida elections debacle making world headlines and the United States divided over his brother's right to the presidency, Bush's political future in Florida is cloudy.

Whether his brother goes to the White House or not, Jeb now operates in George W.'s shadow.

This, at a time when many national pundits are calling him the "smarter brother," the better speaker, the more suitable presidential candidate.

Jeb Bush hates the comparison, calling it "psychobabble."

But Bush might have been this year's presidential candidate if not for his 1994 loss to former Gov. Lawton Chiles. That, too, was a squeaker, with Chiles carrying Florida with a 1.5 percent lead. It was the same year George W. Bush won Texas, a win that made him a second-term governor this year, better positioned for the White House than first-term Gov. Jeb Bush.

Today, as the nation looks on, Jeb Bush is two years into the first elected office he has ever held in his life.

Florida Democrats are talking, with renewed enthusiasm, about finding a suitable challenger for Bush, whose term ends in 2003. Republicans are closing ranks around their man.

Jeb Bush says he hasn't decided whether he will run for a second term.

"Before this election, everyone was intimidated by Jeb Bush. I don't think Jeb Bush is intimidating anymore," said state Rep. Lois Frankel, a Democrat from Palm Beach who is the Florida House minority leader. "This election proved one thing as far as Jeb Bush is concerned: Everybody thought he could deliver this election on a plate for his brother. And he couldn't."

More problematic, from a political standpoint, is the partisan fighting over ballot counting, said Richard Scher, a political science professor at the University of Florida.

"Florida is a tough state to deliver," Scher said. "I think he's got a bigger problem right now, in terms of the Republicans looking like they are doing everything they can to shut down this election."

Going into the presidential election, Jeb Bush had a 59 percent job approval rating in Florida, said Jim Kane, who publishes a political newsletter, Florida Voter.

"That's very high for a midterm governor," Kane said. "That's higher than Lawton Chiles was at the same time."

Kane said he is not aware of any polls on the governor's approval rating since the election. He planned to do one in January, but now says he'll try to do it more quickly.

"I've heard the arguments about his political obituary," Kane said. "The people who really matter in this state -- the voters who are not really Democrats and not really Republicans -- are not going to take this to heart for a long time. He's done the smart thing -- stay out of it -- and let (Florida Secretary of State) Katherine Harris deal with it."

"As long as he's not out in front of the camera talking about his brother and how fair or unfair the recount is, he's going to be fine," Scher said.

Senate President John McKay, R-Bradenton, said Bush's popularity will help him bounce back from this political crisis.

"People perceive him very positively. While they might have a slightly negative blip for a while, I can't imagine it will have any lasting negative effect," McKay said. "I wouldn't make any lasting projections at this emotional moment. It's like when I was a kid and I went to the movies and they had a serial. The serial ended with the guy hanging over the cliff, and they said: "Come back next week and see what happens.' "

One consequence of the election is renewed vigor in the Florida Democratic Party.

"I have seen more energy from the Democrats since this close election than I've seen in my 25 years in Florida," said Frankel, the House minority leader. "This showed us that, when the Democrats can compete with the Republicans financially, we can win statewide elections. We could have someone step up and run for governor. Who will take that plunge? I don't know. But I think there are lots of different folks out there. I can tell you it won't be a landslide for Jeb Bush."

Bush is particularly vulnerable among African-American voters. During the 1998 campaign, Bush worked hard to bring African-Americans under the Republican tent. But now, many blacks are bitter about the governor's policies, especially his "One Florida" plan to eliminate most state affirmative-action laws.

In the two years since he took office, there have been three civil rights demonstrations at Florida's Capitol, including a mass march with the Rev. Jesse Jackson, designed to disrupt Jeb Bush's State of the State speech.

During one of the protests, two black Democratic lawmakers -- Sen. Kendrick Meek of Miami and Rep. Tony Hill of Jacksonville -- came to talk to Bush about One Florida. When the governor wouldn't meet, they held an overnight sit-in at Lt. Gov. Frank Brogan's office. By morning, black and white Democratic lawmakers were banging on the governor's closed door, yelling at Jeb Bush to open it.

Meek and Hill started organizing minorities. They toured the state before the Nov. 7 election, urging blacks to come out and vote. Florida Republicans stumbled badly when party Chairman Al Cardenas put out a news release calling the voter registration drive a "hate tour."

Exit polls indicate high voter turnout among blacks this year -- as much as 16 percent of the Florida electorate this year was black, said Democratic Party spokesman Tony Welch. In the last presidential election, blacks made up about 10 percent of Florida voters, Welch said.

Exit polls show Vice President Al Gore won 93 percent of the black vote, and George W. Bush won just 7 percent. That's only half the percentage that Jeb Bush won two years ago among blacks, indicating that the governor's One Florida policy may have hurt George W. in Florida.

Meek, a former Florida Highway Patrol trooper and son of U.S. Rep. Carrie Meek, has become one of Jeb Bush's most vocal opponents.

He said Jeb Bush "could take a lot of credit" for George W.'s trouble carrying Florida.

"It's because (Jeb) is so busy trying to teach minorities what's good for them, and he doesn't want to listen to them," Meek said. "It won't be long before minorities turn a deaf ear toward him."

On Tuesday, Florida's 2001 Legislature will convene for its first organizational session. As it did last year, it will have a majority of Republicans. That's good for Jeb Bush. In the past two years, he has had little trouble getting his initiatives passed.

Will this year be different?

Saying voters are weary of partisan backbiting, Republican and Democrat leaders are pledging to work collegially in the coming legislative session. It remains to be seen whether Bush will see much resistance. It seems unlikely; Bush is close with top Republican leaders, and, because of term limits, many lawmakers are new to the process and beholden to the Republican Party that helped elect them.

Bush crony John Thrasher, a Jacksonville Republican who is outgoing House speaker, predicts little fallout for the first-term governor.

"When this is all over, I think he'll go back to being governor and the people of Florida will evaluate him on the job he's doing and not whether his brother is president or not," Thrasher said.

And what of Jeb Bush's chances for the White House one day?

"There's no question that he has his sights in that direction," said Kane, of Florida Voter. "We're looking at eight years down the road. Jeb's a young man. It may be that people will forget this, particularly if he moves into a more conciliatory mode of governing. Right now, it's been "my way or the highway.' "

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Lucy Morgan

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