Florida's latest plan for evaluating public schools is encouraging, in that it finally attempts to measure whether students are being taught from one year to the next. But the political context is unchanged, which may explain why this new grading proposal -- the fourth in four years -- is simplistic, hasty and unpredictable.

The rule is headed to the State Cabinet on Dec. 18, and, as if to underscore the uncertainties, state Department of Education administrators included a provision that authorizes Education Commissioner Charlie Crist "to apply a variance of up to 5 percent of the grading scale." In other words, if they don't like the results, Crist gets to put his thumb on the scale.

Says Crist: "It's a very challenging spot, to put it kindly."

The more challenging predicament is the one facing schools across Florida, schools that have been told they will be held accountable for their failures while at the same time being judged by a constantly changing standard. The first year that Gov. Jeb Bush's A+

Education Plan was enacted, in 1999, the state adopted a grading scale and applied it retroactively. It awarded F's, and thus private vouchers, at two Panhandle schools for performance in the two years prior to the law being passed. Each year since, DOE or the Legislature has altered the grading approach.

What makes these grades so significant are that they lie at the heart of Bush's education reform plan. His plan uses vouchers to punish schools and financial bonuses to reward them, but neither makes sense if the state can't accurately assess how well the schools are performing. The grades to date have been based on a snapshot of the students' performance on the Florida Comprehensive Assessment Test. That means they have tended to measure whether students are already smart, not whether they have been well-taught. Bush himself has acknowledged that serious shortcoming, though it hasn't stopped him from handing out $186-million in bonus checks or awarding vouchers to Panhandle students.

This new grade plan aims to correct that flaw by factoring in the learning gains -- or losses -- of individual students. The problem is that the formula is educated guesswork. Rather than follow a prudent course, which would be to wait one more year until the state has actual data about learning gains, DOE is rushing again. Will the new grades produce all A's or all F's? Don't know. Are they a fair standard? Not sure. Can principals determine how their schools will be affected? No.

The puzzled looks aside, it's worth remembering what these grades don't attempt to evaluate. The A-plus assessment ignores such common gauges as classroom grades, which are still the best predictor of college success, and graduation rates. It disregards any course work not tested by FCAT, such as science, social studies, fine arts, physical education, vocations and extracurricular activities. And it evaluates only half the student body in elementary and high schools. The reason is that Bush and lawmakers trust only the information they receive from FCAT, a state-administered test in grades 3-10.

Given that Florida's newest educational experiment hinges on its ability to assess the quality of teaching in every elementary, middle and high school, one might think the system of measurement would be far more exhaustive and complex. But the rule the Cabinet will be asked to approve next month, the fourth in four years, still boils down essentially to one test. Such simplicity may please the politicians, but it is a feeble measure of success.

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