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Who wins? Battle hinges on several fronts

NEXT MOVES: George W. Bush's strategy now turns to one of political offense and legal defense.

By ALICIA CALDWELL

© St. Petersburg Times, published November 27, 2000


Signed, sealed and delivered? Not so fast.

The Florida secretary of state's declaration Sunday night that Republican George W. Bush had won Florida's electoral votes by a mere 537-vote margin certainly advances his case for the presidency, but appeared not to be the final word.

As Al Gore's camp called the Florida results "incomplete and inaccurate," Bush's strategy turned to one of political offense and legal defense.

He must, observers say, win the public relations war waged in living rooms, and keep Gore from snatching it from him in the courtroom.

"This is one of the most amazing legal chess games we've ever seen played," said Laurie Levenson, a professor at Loyola University Law School in Los Angeles. "I don't think even the parties know what their next move will be. It changes from hour to hour."

For Bush to win he must:

Prevail in the court of public opinion. Expect to see continued posturing that echoes the words of Bush adviser James Baker III, who said Sunday night that the Republican bested Gore in at least five separate counts. All the lawyers, Baker said, ought to go home.

Outflank Gore's legal challenges. Gore advisers have said the vice president will challenge the outcome in court. Bush lawyers must successfully fend off his challenges.

Continue to mine absentee ballots for more Bush votes in an effort to create a buffer if the hand recounts in Democratic counties reveal more Gore votes. To that end, Bush lawyers already have filed lawsuits in several Florida counties challenging the exclusion of overseas and military ballots eliminated for such things as missing postmarks.

Keep Florida Republicans in the state Legislature as an ace in the hole. Republicans, who control both houses of the Florida Legislature, are maneuvering to choose Florida's electors if the state's results aren't finalized by Dec. 12. The lawmakers appointed a select committee that will meet this week.

Prevail in the U.S. Supreme Court, which will on Friday hear Bush's case challenging a Florida Supreme Court decision that allowed the hand recounts to go forward. Bush could -- but won't -- drop his appeal.

Now that the results are in, expect the legal briefs to fly and the spin to begin.

Republican pollster Bill McInturff said certification, despite impending legal action, will help solidify the image of Bush as president-elect. "Based on the numbers we had (in a survey) 10 days ago, I think if he is a state-certified winner that a comfortable majority of Americans will see him as the person who will be president and the person with the most legitimate claim to be president," he said.

Bush supporters "have been scoring points all along," said Ross K. Baker, a political scientist at Rutgers University in New Jersey. "They have almost created the idea that this guy is the presumptive winner, that the sorehead appellation is Al Gore, the person who doesn't have enough courage to holler "uncle.' "

Democrats, as can be imagined, have a different view.

Florida's Sen. Bob Graham said claiming victory based on Katherine Harris' certification is not a valid claim on the office.

"What is putting the presidency in jeopardy is the prospect of illegitimacy," he said.

- Information from the Washington Post, Knight Ridder newspapers and other Times wires were used in this report.

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