Who wins? Battle hinges on several fronts

COURT COULD HELP: Gore needs the U.S. Supreme Court to go his way to keep his chances alive.

By BILL ADAIR

© St. Petersburg Times, published November 27, 2000

WASHINGTON -- Vice President Al Gore isn't out of the running yet.

Despite the boasts from Texas Gov. George W. Bush's campaign Sunday night, there still are several scenarios in which Gore could pick up enough votes to win Florida and the Electoral College.

Gore's strategy depends on the courts. If the issue goes before the Florida Legislature or the Congress, he is likely to lose.

All scenarios depend on a favorable ruling from the U.S. Supreme Court. The court is considering a Bush appeal of the Florida Supreme Court ruling that delayed the certification of state results until last night so hand recounts could be included. That count declared Bush the winner by 537 votes.

To stay alive, Gore needs a ruling from the nation's highest court that allows those hand recounts to be included and allows additional court challenges this week. The U.S. Supreme Court is scheduled to hold a hearing on the case Friday.

Assuming the court allows Gore's challenges to continue, it becomes a legal battle and, ultimately, a numbers game. Gore could win with one or more of the following scenarios:

A hand recount in Miami-Dade County. He had picked up a net gain of 157 votes Wednesday when the county canvassing board chose to stop the recount. Assuming he continued to pick up votes at that pace, Gore strategists believe he could win more than enough to overtake Bush in the statewide count.

A favorable court ruling on absentee ballots in Seminole County, which could disqualify thousands of Bush votes. A lawsuit filed by a Democratic lawyer alleges the county elections supervisor broke state law when she allowed Republicans to use her offices to fix thousands of flawed absentee ballot applications. The supervisor says she did not break the law and has emphasized that actual ballots were not involved.

Inclusion of the Palm Beach County hand recount, which was not in the results announced Sunday night.

Gore had gained about 180 votes in the Palm Beach count when it was suspended at 4:19 p.m. because Secretary of State Katherine Harris would not allow an extension beyond the 5 p.m. deadline. Gore strategists expected he would pick up additional votes when the remaining ballots were counted.

The Gore campaign is challenging the Palm Beach results and is hopeful that the courts will allow a broad interpretation of voter intent, which would allow dimpled ballots to be counted.

"I think their best shot is to get a recount in Dade," said David Cardwell, former director of the state division of elections. Dade has enough votes to change the statewide outcome, and judges in at least one similar case have appointed a "special master" to do a recount.

Cardwell said the Gore campaign will have a more difficult time picking up additional votes in Palm Beach because the results have already been certified. Judges will be reluctant to accept additional results beyond Sunday's deadline, he said.

Challenges in other Florida counties could also help Gore, but he needs a bigger than expected swing to overtake Bush.

Another key to Gore's victory is public opinion. Gore advisers say they are confident that people "want a full count" and are willing to tolerate another week or two of legal wrangling. Polls have shown a majority of the nation supports the recount.

But it's unclear how Gore will fare now that the state result has been certified.

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