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National title game: FSU vs. ?

'Noles virtually clinch berth in BCS finale; Miami's lone hope is an Oklahoma upset.

By BRIAN LANDMAN

© St. Petersburg Times, published November 28, 2000

Official Orange Bowl site Times college football site Times college football forum

Ever since a midseason loss to Miami, the Florida State Seminoles have maintained they still had a chance to reach the national championship game.

That appears to be a lock now.

The Seminoles not only held onto the No. 2 spot in the latest Bowl Championship Series standings released Monday afternoon, they increased their lead over third-place Miami, the lone team they lost to this season and a team they trail in the Associated Press and the ESPN/USA Today polls.

Numerous independent projections indicate the Seminoles, who reached the title game in the first two years of the BCS' existence, can't be supplanted by the Hurricanes.

"They're in," said Jerry Palm, who crunches the numbers and produces a BCS facsimile with startling accuracy. "There isn't any ground for Miami to pick up. I don't know where the miracle would come from. It would take something just outlandish."

Undefeated Oklahoma remained No. 1 and can earn a spot in the Jan. 3 Orange Bowl by beating Kansas State on Saturday in the Big 12 championship game. Meanwhile, anything short of a Kansas State upset will send the Hurricanes to the Sugar Bowl or Fiesta Bowl.

"Yeah, that's what they are telling us," FSU coach Bobby Bowden said, referring to his team's apparent stranglehold on an Orange Bowl berth, "but until I talk to someone from the Orange Bowl with an invitation in their hand, I won't feel like it's a sure thing."

The final BCS standings are released Sunday.

FSU, which jumped past Miami by .51 points after its 30-7 win against Florida in its regular-season finale on Nov. 18, leads the Hurricanes by 0.61 points in the BCS formula.

How did that happen?

Look no further than the eight computers and the schedule rank, two of the four equally weighted components that go into the BCS. (The others are an average of the AP and coaches polls and an average of eight computers with the lowest ranking discarded.)

Thanks to Oklahoma's narrow win against lowly Oklahoma State, FSU moved to No. 1 in two additional computers and is the top team according to six of the eight computers. As a result, FSU lowered its computer average from 1.43 points to 1.14.

Miami routed Boston College in its regular-season finale last weekend to improve its computer numbers as well, cutting 0.15 points from its total, but still lost 0.14 points to FSU.

The Hurricanes' schedule rank dropped from 0.20 to 0.08, but made up little ground when FSU's schedule rank, buoyed by Georgia Tech and Brigham Young wins, fell from 0.12 to 0.04.

Much to the Hurricanes' chagrin and disbelief, their 27-24 victory against FSU on Oct. 7 wasn't enough.

"I think they need to tweak the BCS," UM receiver Andre King said. "It's like the election. The popular vote wants Miami, but those darn electoral votes of the BCS are saying otherwise."

"Everybody saw how good we are," UM receiver Santana Moss said. "Let them make their decision, but remember this: The University of Miami deserves to be No.2 in the BCS."

Bowden is not convinced that a Miami-Florida State showdown would quell the dispute.

"The public may think so," Bowden said. "I wouldn't say until I know who we are playing. But Washington and Oregon State will still have legitimate gripes so the controversy will still be there."

Miami could still share the national title even without making the Orange Bowl if they enter their bowl game ranked No.2 in both major polls.

If FSU, ranked No.3 in the major polls, knocked off No.1 Oklahoma, the Seminoles would be national champions in the ESPN/USA Today coaches poll. The American Football Coaches Association agreed two years ago that the winner of the BCS title game automatically would be its national champion.

The writers and broadcasters who vote in the AP poll are not under such an obligation. If Miami won its bowl game and Oklahoma lost, the media would be free to vote Miami No.1, and split the national title.

-- Information from Times wires was used in this report.

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