Nothing is really on fire this year, but experts say there is plenty in stores that kids will want for the holidays.
By PAMELA DAVIS
© St. Petersburg Times, published December 4, 2000
If you're hoping this story will identify the must-have, gotta-buy hit toy of the year, we have some news for you: There isn't one.
There are plenty of popular toys and lots that will sell well (and maybe sell out), but there's no shining star. No toy will compel parents to chase down delivery trucks or start fist fights in store aisles.
Blame the lack of toy fever on the presidential election, says toy expert Chris Byrne.
The media, which usually anoint the hit toy each year, have been too busy reporting on chad, recounts and butterfly ballots to pay attention to the toy buying season.
"The election has meant that there's been news to cover," Byrne said. "But I think it's a good thing for parents. It's totally ludicrous for people to get in line at 5 a.m. to wait for a toy."
Byrne, a contributing editor of Toy Wishes magazine and the industry trade publication Toy Book, and other toy experts develop annual lists of hot toys. They have to make their decisions almost a year before anything hits the store shelves.
Picks are based on a variety of factors, including what sold well last year, what retailers are supporting, what the trends are and which toy companies have taken the trends and gone to the next step.
Some toy journalists, such as those who work for Toy Wishes, also get to see rough cuts of commercials. Advertising can often make or break a plaything's success. The best toy without a strategic marketing plan is going to lose out to the worst toy with a great marketing plan.
The Times interviewed numerous toy watchers, checked out lots of holiday toy lists and visited stores to find the season's most popular toys:
Hottest of the hot: It was a sure bet that anything related to Harry Potter would be huge. There's not much Potter stuff on the market right now (expect to see more products when the Sorcerer's Stone movie is out next year), but there's a lot of interest in the property. The Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone Trivia Game (Mattel, $25) is garnering the most attention. Mattel also offers a $50 collectible version of the game, which includes pewter pieces and is sold in specialty stores.
"With Harry Potter, as with Pokemon, kids become so deeply involved with the story that they really identify and love celebrating what they know about it with other kids," Byrne said.
The scooter sensation doesn't appear to be dying down, so if the kids on your list don't already have one, count on them asking for the most popular brand: the Razor ($100 and up).
"The scooter trend came out of left field and caught people off guard," says Toy Wishes publisher Jim Silver.
Sony won't get enough PlayStation 2's in the stores to meet the holiday demand, but the company was up front about it, and lots of folks are waiting until more hit the market. However, PlayStation 2 (Sony, $300) is on plenty of wish lists anyway.
Even when they aren't doing anything, robotic dogs are cute to have around the house. They are this year's most copied trend. There are lots of them on the market, and they range in price from $30 to $100.
Interactive plush: Elmo is still the king of talking toys. This year's most popular offering is Let's Pretend Elmo (Fisher-Price, $30). As his name suggests, he gets kids involved in imaginative play by chattering about make-believe scenarios.
Television/movie tie-ins: Licensed toys come and go pretty quickly, but for one shining moment, they reign supreme. This year's hot properties include the The Grinch movie and the Powerpuff Girls TV show.
"We think the Grinch will be hot," says Silver. "We think it will be the most high-profile licensed property of the season, with the Interactive Grinch (Playmates, $30) being No. 1."
The Grinch line also includes action figures, a Cindy Lou Who doll, a plush Max the Dog and other products.
You can't count out Pokemon either.
"Sales are significantly down over last year," Byrne said, "which means they will probably only make $3-billion in merchandise sales this year instead of the $14-billion last year." The Pokemon Gold and Silver video games (Nintendo, $30 each) are expected to be the best sellers.
Battery-operated: A November trip to a St. Petersburg Toys "R" Us store saw the shelves bare where the Top It (Hasbro, $20) hand held game was supposed to be. It was a hit as soon as it came out. As in its predecessor, Bop It, players react to Top It's commands, but this time they must use the device to flip and flop a bean bag ball.
Dolls: Two things make Amazing Babies (Playmates, $40) this year's leading doll. Its realistic animatronics allow it to move its head and turn in recognition of its mother's voice. And the doll, unlike some offerings on the market, doesn't cost a fortune.
"It's such a beautiful doll and it has just the right amount of technology, so the little girl is still the star of the show and is the one who plays," says Byrne.
Educational: Toy watchers are unanimous: the Turbo Twist Spelling and Turbo Twist Math games (LeapFrog, $40 each) are two of the hit learning toys of the year. The spelling version plays music while teaching spelling words and definitions. The math version uses games to teach math and is set to music.
Action figures: Sales in the action figure category have been down this year but there's still a lot of interest in the little plastic playthings.
You may have thought they went away, but the Power Rangers (Bandai America, $3 to $10) are still going strong and are expected to be the leading action figure.
"They reinvent the Power Rangers every year," Byrne says. "Since there's a new audience of kids every year, they keep discovering it. And it comes into the homes (via television) five days a week, so the kids have a relationship with it much more than with a movie that comes and goes."
Action figures based on the Digimon animated series and movie (Bandai America, $3 to $8) are expected to be a close second in sales.
Count out wrestling figures this year. Most experts say they've gone from hot to lukewarm.
Best kind of toy for the buck: Building sets are the best way to stretch your dollar. The toys never create the same thing twice and can be forever added onto.
The hottest construction set this year comes from a household name: Lego. After kids have finished building the Championship Challenge (Lego, $50) set, they can play a game of soccer on it using the spring-loaded players.
Trouble is, Lego's Championship Challenge is sold out in many stores and online retailers. "I think it caught Lego off guard," Silver said.
Toy that will drive parents crazy: Little kids may love repetition, but it can make parents reach for the sledge hammer. So, moms and dads, get ready for Sing & Swing Angelica (Mattel, $37). The Rugrats character comes with her own karaoke machine and belts out three songs, including a cleaned-up version of the Donna Summers song Bad Girls.
"I see little girls getting totally into this toy and parents saying "If I ever hear that song again. . . .' For little kids it really is different every time. For parents it's not," Byrne said.
Other opinions: There's no shortage of publications, TV shows and specialized lists of hot toys. There was a time when any toy featured on NBC's Today Show or The Rosie O'Donnell Show would be a hit. That's not necessarily the case anymore because so many shows and magazines have gotten in on the act.
One toy that has garnered national publicity is a Golden Retriever Hand Puppet (Folkmanis Puppets, $60). The 30-inch dog has popped up on Rosie, Fox News and Live With Regis. It has been written about in Consumer Reports, Family Fun, Parents and USA Today.