After Arafat, what's next?

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© St. Petersburg Times,
published December 6, 2001

If anything happened to Yasser Arafat, Sari Nusseibeh is exactly the kind of Palestinian that Israel might love to have as a peace partner.

The 52-year-old Nusseibeh, president of Al-Quds University in Jerusalem, is Oxford-educated, charming -- and moderate. That's why Palestinian militants dislike him so much.

Palestinian legislator Marwan Barghouti, on the other hand, has the militants' support. But that makes him anathema to Israel -- so much so that it came close to assassinating him in August.

In the wake of last weekend's suicide bombings that killed 26 Israelis, Arafat's grip on power appears increasingly shaky. Israel blamed the Palestinian leader for the attacks, and has destroyed his helicopters, parts of his compounds and other symbols of power. One missile came so close that Arafat was forced to flee to an underground bunker.

But, experts say, it is hard to see anybody else on the horizon who could unite the many Palestinian factions and find a way to revive the moribund peace process.

"I don't think the Israelis would kill Arafat because they understand there is simply no alternative to him," says Murhaf Jouejati, resident scholar at the Middle East Institute, a Washington, D.C., think tank.

"Either alternative is much worse -- elders who are not popular and can't hold the street, or local chieftains who might enjoy a lot of popularity but have not consolidated their power. So at the national level, there really is no one in particular that commands Arafat's clout."

For three decades, Arafat has been so closely identified with the dream of Palestinian statehood that even his enemies find it hard to imagine life without him. But while he is amazingly spry for a septuagenarian rumored to have Parkinson's disease, he has seen his power slip during the 14-month intifada, or uprising, as Hamas and Islamic Jihad have escalated the level of violence against Israelis.

Thus Arafat finds himself in a bind. If he doesn't crack down on terrorists, he faces ever more opprobrium from Israel and the United States. But if he moves as forcefully as they demand, he risks revolt from the militant factions of his own people, frustrated that his tenure has produced so few tangible results.

"There is a basic failure on the part of Palestinian leadership to deliver for the Palestinian people something good," says Marius Deeb, a professor at the School of Advanced International Studies at Johns Hopkins University.

"Suicide bombers are not the answer to the question of having better lives, better education, better infrastructure and a state recognized by the world. . . . Arafat is doing nothing of the sort -- he's still the old guerrilla fighter and still thinks that through violence he can achieve his aims."

Arafat may be a flawed leader, but who would replace him remains problematic.

Though their voices are often drowned out by more inflammatory rhetoric, some prominent Palestinians have dared to say that Palestinians as well as Israelis must compromise if the two sides are ever to reach a lasting peace. Among them is Sari Nusseibeh, who comes from a well-respected Jerusalem family and studied philosophy at Oxford University.

Nusseibeh is said to be a personal favorite of Arafat, who recently named him the Palestinian Authority's political commissioner for Jerusalem. Nusseibeh quickly angered many hardline Palestinians by acknowledging Jews' "existential connection" to the city, and saying it is wrong to insist that Israel grant the "right of return" to millions of Palestinians.

"What needs to be done now is to deal honestly with the facts," Nusseibeh told the Jerusalem Post last month. "We need wisdom now, rather than cleverness."

While Nusseibeh's flexibility could make him an ideal negotiating partner for Israel, the same quality almost guarantees he won't be Arafat's successor.

"He's going against the flow," says Jouejati of the Mideast Institute. "Although he is very respected among academia, he does not enjoy much street support."

Far more popular at the grass-roots level is Barghouti, 41, a member of the Palestinian Legislative Council and leader of Arafat's Fatah Party. Skeptical of Israel's commitment to "land for peace," he wants to continue the intifada until all Israeli troops and settlers are gone from the West Bank and Gaza. Barghouti acknowledges meeting often with leaders of Hamas and other terrorist groups, whom he regards as freedom fighters.

"I think he has become a major voice and activist in this current intifada," says Fawaz Gerges, professor of Middle East Affairs at New York's Sarah Lawrence College.

"He's very popular with the young foot soldiers because, unlike his other colleagues, he's basically on the street with them."

Yet Barghouti's close connection to radicals makes him more likely to be an Israeli assassination target than the new leader of the Palestinians. He narrowly missed being killed in an attack last summer: Israel is still "paving the way for my assassination," he recently told an Israeli newspaper.

If Arafat himself is killed or dies, he would be automatically succeeded for 40 days by Ahmed Qureia, speaker of the Palestinian assembly. Also known as Abu Ala, he was involved in negotiations that led to the 1993 Oslo peace agreement with Israel and might be more willing than Arafat to compromise on the "right of return" for Palestinian refugees.

Besides Abu Ala, other candidates to permanently replace Arafat would include the directors of the Palestinian security forces and other members of Arafat's inner circle. A group not known for either energetic youth or great intellect, they are men primarily concerned with protecting their own vested interests, experts say.

"Arafat has been able to corrupt the entire entourage," says Gerges of Sarah Lawrence. "This is an entourage corrupted by years of politics and deals and links to various economic interests. I would not use the word "thugs,' but I'd say it's highly corrupt and corruptible and authoritarian to the core."

While any power vacuum resulting from Arafat's demise might strengthen Hamas and Islamic Jihad, no one expects the heads of those organizations to assume the general Palestinian leadership.

Sheik Ahmed Yassin, Hamas' spiritual chief, is old, frail and blind. Ramadan Shallah, the ex-University of South Florida professor who heads Islamic Jihad, divides his time between Syria and Lebanon. He reportedly never sets foot in Palestinian territory for fear Israeli agents would kill him.

But as Britain discovered in Northern Ireland and the United States is realizing in Afghanistan, Israel might be forced to negotiate with terrorist groups because they hold so much power and owe allegiance to no particular country.

"We're in a world where nation states are being challenged by all kinds of nonstate entities" like al-Qaida and Palestinian terrorist groups, says Cynthia Mahmood, an expert on Islamic movements at Northwestern University.

"By refusing to engage in dialog with any nonstate entities, we're ruling out any solutions other than a military one, and a military solution will never work. . . . Israel may be in a position where it will have to revise its thinking on dealing with these groups."

- Susan Martin can be contacted at susan@sptimes.com.

A timeline of Yasser Arafat's life

1929: Born Mohammed Abdel-Raouf Arafat al-Qudwa al-Husseini in Cairo on Aug. 4, although Arafat says he was born in Jerusalem.

1933: Arafat's mother dies. He is sent to relatives in Jerusalem.

1944: Joins Union of Palestinian students in Cairo.

1948: Runs arms to Palestine, studies guerrilla tactics. Arafat's father dies fighting Israel.

1950-56: Attends Cairo University. Becomes president of Palestinian Student Union and guerrilla leader. Founds Palestine Liberation Movement known as Fatah.

1957-65: Works as an engineer in Kuwait.

1964-67: Starts military actions against Israel and increases guerrilla activities against it after defeat of Arab armies in the 1967 war.

1969-73: Named executive chairman of the Palestine Liberation Organization. Steps up terror attacks against Israel and international aircraft hijacking. Fights King Hussein's forces in Jordan and is driven to Lebanon in 1970.

1974: Arafat declares to the U.N. General Assembly: "Today I have come bearing an olive branch and a freedom fighter's gun. Do not let the olive branch fall from my hand."

1982: Israel invades Lebanon to crush PLO, forcing Arafat's guerrillas to evacuate Beirut strongholds.

1983: Arafat forced out of Lebanon. Moves his headquarters to Tunis, Tunisia.

1987-90: Palestinian uprising begins in the occupied territories. PLO moves back to center stage. Arafat accepts Israel's right to exist, but supports Saddam Hussein in Iraq's 1990 invasion of Kuwait. PLO becomes isolated.

1993: In secret talks in Oslo, Norway, Israel and the PLO produce an interim framework for Palestinian autonomy in the West Bank and Gaza Strip. Arafat and Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin of Israel sign a Declaration of Principles in Washington.

1994: Israel withdraws its forces from most of the Gaza Strip and Jericho. Arafat arrives in Gaza to take up his new position as the elected head of the new Palestinian Authority. Arafat, Shimon Peres and Yitzhak Rabin receive Nobel Peace Prize for their peace efforts in the Middle East.

1995: Arafat and Rabin sign "Oslo II" in Washington to expand Palestinian self-rule in the West Bank and Gaza and allow Palestinian elections.

1996: Benjamin Netanyahu becomes Israeli prime minister. Four-year freeze on Jewish settlements in the West Bank and Gaza Strip is relaxed.

1997: Israel hands over most of Hebron to Palestinian rule, but holds onto enclaves with Jewish settlers.

1998: Netanyahu signs Wye River Memorandum outlining further Israeli withdrawal from the West Bank after U.S. pressure to end 18 months of stagnation in the peace effort.

1999: Israel suspends Wye timetable. Ehud Barak defeats Netanyahu and promises to accelerate peace negotiations. Barak and Arafat meet with Secretary of State Madeleine Albright in Egypt and sign a revised interim peace deal. Final status talks resume.

2000: President Clinton calls for a summit meeting in July at Camp David. Nine days of talks end without agreement.

-- Sources: AP, New York Times

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