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NFL game day: week 16

Compiled by ERNEST HOOPER

© St. Petersburg Times, published December 17, 2000

Hooper's record: last week 11-4 (134-84 overall), 5-10 vs. spread (111-97-10)

Rams at Bucs

9 p.m., Monday

TV: Ch. 28

Line: Rams by 1 1/2

OF NOTE: The Bucs have a lot going for them. At home, on a Monday night with a playoff berth on the line, the Raymond James crowd should be at a fever pitch. Tampa Bay also has the belief it can contend with the Rams offense, so it's not likely to be overwhelmed early. That will be key because St. Louis' best approach to winning is getting out to a quick start. As long as the Bucs keep it close to the fourth quarter, they'll be in good shape. Don't be surprised if Tampa Bay puts up points against a defense that still has a lot to show. Shaun King is due.

KEY INJURIES: Rams -- S Rich Coady (neck-injured reserve), WR Tony Horne (toe) are out. RB Robert Holcombe (ankle) is probable. Buccaneers -- LB Al Singleton (knee) is out. RB Mike Alstott (knee), T Pete Pierson (calf) are probable.

HOOPER'S PICK: Bucs 28, Rams 24

Colts at Dolphins

4:15 p.m.

TV: Ch. 10

Line: Dolphins by 3

OF NOTE: The Colts were leading the Dolphins in Week 14 before Peyton Manning threw an ill-advised pass in the fourth quarter that was intercepted and led to a 17-14 Miami victory. Whether Indianapolis can get in that position again is unclear. The Colts defense played surprisingly well in that game, but Dolphins QB Jay Fiedler and RB Lamar Smith were out. Miami has the No. 1 defensive passer rating (53.0) in the league and has nine interceptions in five games against Manning. Indianapolis is desperate, but so are the Dolphins.

KEY INJURIES: Colts -- WR E.G. Green (knee), LB Dwight Hollier (shoulder) are questionable. Dolphins -- CB Terrance Shaw (knee), WR Leslie Shepherd (knee) are out. DE Rich Owens (back) is questionable. QB Jay Fiedler (shoulder) is probable.

HOOPER'S PICK: Dolphins 24, Colts 23

Jaguars at Bengals

1 p.m.

Line: Jaguars by 10 1/2

OF NOTE: The Jaguars are receiving letters from teams that have qualified for the playoffs: "Thank you for not reaching the post-season because we really would be afraid if we had to play you now." Jacksonville is simply steamrolling teams, having outscored its past four opponents by an average of 18 points. After Cleveland (48-0) and Arizona (44-10) got annihilated, it's difficult to envision Cincy avoiding a similar fate. The Bengals should benefit, however, from having a better running game than the Browns or Cardinals.

KEY INJURIES: Jaguars -- LB Erik Storz (thumb-injured reserve) is out. WR Reggie Barlow (eye), DL Larry Smith (knee) are questionable. Bengals -- TE Tony McGee (ankle) is out. RB Clif Groce (knee), T Willie Anderson (back) are questionable.

HOOPER'S PICK: Jaguars 21, Bengals 13

Patriots at

1 p.m.

Line: Bills by 5

OF NOTE: Bill Belichick really cares. About what I have no idea, but he cares. Last week he barred receiver Tony Simmons from practice and had his locker stripped of all practice gear. What happened to, "Tony, you need to practice harder?" Call me crazy (no, call Belichick crazy) but I don't think this motivational ploy is going to fly. The Pats are already having a lousy season and such moves don't make it any more palatable. The Bills are having their own woes with a line that can't run block and can't pass block. But they'll overcome that combination.

KEY INJURIES: Patriots -- S Tony George (toe), RB J.R. Redmond (ribs) are questionable. Bills -- S Keion Carpenter (ankle), LB Sam Cowart (ankle), LB Sam Rogers (groin) are out. T John Fina (knee), DE Phil Hansen (knee) are questionable.

HOOPER'S PICK: Bills 21, Patriots 14

Packers at Vikings

1 p.m.

TV: Ch. 13

Line: Vikes by 8 1/2

OF NOTE: Green Bay still has a chance to make the playoffs, but I don't see it happening even if it wins its last two. The Packers upset Minnesota at Lambeau Field in Week 10, but the operative word in that sentence is Lambeau. Green Bay quarterback Brett Favre is 1-7 at the Metrodome and has thrown five touchdowns and 12 interceptions in those eight games. Minnesota is 7-0 at home and I don't see it losing this one with home-field advantage and the NFC Central hanging in the balance. The Vikes just have to play a little defense.

KEY INJURIES: Packers -- WR Corey Bradford (knee), T Earl Dotson (back), RB Dorsey Levens (knee), LB Brian Williams (knee) are out. Vikings -- WR Matthew Hatchette (thorax), CB Robert Tate (knee), S Orlando Thomas (shoulder) are questionable.

HOOPER'S PICK: Vikings 28, Packers 24

Falcons at Saints

1 p.m.

Line: Saints by 10

OF NOTE: The Falcons, losers of five straight, had a bye week to regain a sense of purpose, but I don't think it happened. While Falcons ownership may be happy about Dan Reeves' plans to return, what hope does that offer the players? Atlanta has not scored more than 14 points in six consecutive games, and that won't change today. The Saints, meanwhile, are the feel-good story of the season, triumphing over adversity with simple but unyielding faith. New Orleans believes it will win today thanks to defense and spirited quarterback Aaron Brooks.

KEY INJURIES: Falcons -- S Terry Cousin (hamstring), DE Brady Smith (ankle) are questionable. Saints -- RB Ricky Williams (fibula) is out. DT Norman Hand (foot) is doubtful. RB Jerald Moore (neck), RB Chad Morton (shoulder) are questionable.

HOOPER'S PICK: Saints 20, Falcons 10

Broncos at Chiefs

1 p.m.

Line: Broncos by 3

OF NOTE: Do you get the feeling Denver is going to lose? Sure, the Broncos have more talent than the Chiefs and are playoff bound, but they have won six in a row and I just don't think that they are going to enter the playoffs on an eight-game winning streak. Kansas City got that winning feeling back when Carolina kicker Joe Nedney missed a sure field goal, but the victory should provide a little momentum. If Kansas City can slow running back Mike Anderson, the Chiefs will win.

KEY INJURIES: Broncos -- Brian Griese (shoulder), RB Terrell Davis (leg) are out. CB Ray Crockett (hamstring) is questionable. Chiefs -- RB Donnell Bennett (knee) is out. LB Donnie Edwards (hip), T John Tait (knee), DT Dan Williams (thigh) are questionable.

HOOPER'S PICK: Chiefs 28, Broncos 27

Lions at Jets

1 p.m.

Line: Jets by 6 1/2

OF NOTE: Detroit generally struggles outside the comforts of the Silverdome, but it already has one victory on the Jets home field. The Lions beat the Giants 31-21 in the Meadowlands in November. This time, however, Detroit's secondary is in worse shape. Both safeties, Ron Rice and Kurt Schulz, are on the shelf, as is backup Corwin Brown. Cornerback is thin too thanks to the season-ending injury to Bryant Westbrook. It's all good news for QB Vinny Testaverde and an offense looking to rebound from a dismal effort in last week's Oakland loss.

KEY INJURIES: Lions -- Brown (knee) is out. Schulz (ankle), WR Brian Stablein (knee) are doubtful. WR Desmond Howard (ribs) is questionable. Jets -- DE Rick Lyle (leg-injured reserve) is out. RB Curtis Martin (back), Testaverde (groin) are probable.

HOOPER'S PICK: Jets 24, Lions 20

Chargers at Panthers

1 p.m.

Line: Panthers by 8 1/2

OF NOTE: The Chargers are a desolate 1-13, and nice guy Mike Riley is not the sole proprietor of all that's wrong in San Diego. But starting from scratch didn't sound all that bad and Southern Cal was going to help by hiring Riley. Alas, San Diego owners reportedly wouldn't let Riley out of his contract. I guess they wanted to keep him around to the bitter end, and it will be bitter. Carolina still has a lot of pride and should do well as long as it slows the Chargers feeble running game. If the Panthers hadn't been swept by lowly Atlanta this season, they would still be in playoff contention.

KEY INJURIES: Chargers -- G Kevin Gogan (knee) is out. DE Neil Smith (knee) is doubtful. Panthers -- G Matt Campbell (ankle) is out. RB Tshimanga Biakabutuka (toe), RB William Floyd (ribs) are questionable.

HOOPER'S PICK: Panthers 24, Chargers 3

Titans at Browns

1 p.m.

TV: Ch. 10

Line: Titans by 16

OF NOTE: Tennessee turned the ball over seven times and still beat Cleveland last month. The Titans don't want to press their luck again, but they could. Cleveland has been outscored 151-41 during its current four-game losing streak, while Tennessee thumped Cincinnati last week 35-3 in one of its most dominating wins of the season. No wonder Browns GM Carmen Policy is demanding change from Chris Palmer. The Titans are battling for home-field advantage and have to hold off Baltimore to win the AFC Central.

KEY INJURIES: Titans -- DE Kenny Holmes (knee) is out. RB Eddie George (toe), QB Steve McNair (ankle/knee) are questionable. Browns -- WR Dennis Northcutt (ankle), QB Kevin Thompson (ankle) are out. G Everett Lindsay (back), C Dave Wohlabaugh (ankle) are questionable.

HOOPER'S PICK: Titans 35, Browns 10

Bears at 49ers

4 p.m.

Line: 49ers by 6 1/2

OF NOTE: You don't hear Steve Mariucci's name being bandied about as a coach of the year candidate like Jim Haslett or Dennis Green, but his work has taken San Francisco beyond expectations. In Jeff Garcia, Charlie Garner and Terrell Owens, the Niners have a budding set of triplets to build upon. Word out of Chicago is Cade McNown will return to the starting lineup. It'll be interesting to see how he responds after nursing an injury and reflecting on some of his off-the-field snafus. But McNown won't be sharp enough to spark the Bears offense, and they'll need points.

KEY INJURIES: Bears -- DE Phillip Daniels (ankle), CB Walt Harris (knee) are out. 49ers -- S Lance Schulters (knee) is out. RB Garrison Hearst (ankle) is doubtful. DT Brentson Buckner (back) is questionable.

HOOPER'S PICK: 49ers 35, Bears 21

Ravens at Cardinals

4:15 p.m.

Line: Ravens by 15 1/2

OF NOTE: Chris Greisen probably feels like little Mikey from the cereal commercial. "Hey, who's going to play against the ravenous Ravens defense this week? Let's get Chris to play. He'll do it. He'll do anything." There are better ways to make an NFL debut. Baltimore has not allowed a touchdown pass in the past three games, and it will be eager to build momentum for the playoffs and possibly catch Tennessee. Offensively, Trent Dilfer has thrown at least two touchdowns in five straight games. Meanwhile, the Cardinals have lost five straight, having been outscored 164-53. Clearly, they've seen better days in the desert.

KEY INJURIES: Ravens -- DT Sam Adams (back), T Harry Swayne (thigh) are questionable. Cardinals -- DE Thomas Burke (abdomen) is out. QB Jake Plummer (ribs) is questionable.

HOOPER'S PICK: Ravens 50, Cardinals 5

Giants at Cowboys

8:30 p.m.

TV: ESPN

Line: Giants by 6 1/2

OF NOTE: The Cowboys' 32-13 win against Washington may have been the most perplexing of the season. Dallas got it done against a Redskins team that was supposedly fired up for new coach Terry Robiskie and still battling for a playoff spot. And it won behind third-string quarterback Anthony Wright. It helped that Emmitt Smith got 150 yards, but it's still amazing. Can you expect another miracle tonight? No. The Giants will do what Washington failed to do, exploit Dallas' porous run defense.

KEY INJURIES: Giants -- WR Joe Jurevicius (knee) is out. RB Joe Montgomery (thigh) is questionable. Cowboys -- QB Troy Aikman (concussion), DT Leon Lett (knee), C Mark Stepnoski (knee-injured reserve) are out. S Darren Woodson (arm) is doubtful.

HOOPER'S PICK: Giants 27, Cowboys 12

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