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Plenty hangs in the balance as the Bucs host the Saints today: job security, the playoffs, and maybe the direction of the franchise.

By RICK STROUD, Times Staff Writer
© St. Petersburg Times
published December 23, 2001

TAMPA -- Better win if you don't want a change of address.

That was what Tony Dungy was thinking.

There was more riding on the outcome than he could comprehend. The Bucs might never be the same. Livelihoods could be lost, families uprooted, the front office rearranged.

Dungy tried to keep his team focused on the opponent, but it was no use. Players knew the game was a referendum.

Then the Bucs went out and were crushed 34-3 by the Packers, the worst home-opening defeat in club history.

"We were concerned, no question. And I felt at the time that might've been the game that caused us to move out of town," Dungy said of the first game he coached for the Bucs in 1996. "And it didn't turn out to be that way. That was a shellacking, and you feel that people will vote you out. And it turns out if people had judged on one game, they would've missed some good football."

Of course, one day after the loss, voters in Hillsborough approved a sales tax increase that financed the construction of Raymond James Stadium, kept the Bucs in Tampa and lined the pockets of team owner Malcolm Glazer.

The rest, as they say, is history.

When Dungy and the Bucs (7-6) play the Saints (7-6) today, there will be more at stake than the inside track to the final NFC wild card.

By failing to get the Bucs to the playoffs, Dungy could be looking at a change of address. But the only votes that count belong to the Glazer family, who have not told the coach how many games he must win this season to return for the final year of his contract.

"In 22 years coaching I've never been on a team where it was ever said you've got to win X number of games and I've never coached in a game where the owner or anybody else said, "You've got to win this game or else,' " Dungy said. "I think a lot of that is fictional in people's minds. I think most organizations look at the end of the year and evaluate.

"And they don't say, "I don't think the team is very good, but we got lucky and got in the playoffs so we're going to keep things status quo.' Or they don't say, "I like the coaching staff, I like the players, I like the organization, but even though we just didn't get the job done, we've got to make a change. It's very rarely on one play, or one game, or a record.

"If I had the answer, it'd be easy to say it's do or die, that we're going to have a new team or not have a team if we don't win this game. But I don't have the answer to that so you have to approach it with the facts that you have. What we know is we've got a chance to make the playoffs and this could put us one step closer and that's why it's a big game."

But if you subscribe to the domino theory, it could be much bigger.

By their silence, the Glazers have fueled speculation that if Dungy fails to take his team deep into the playoffs, possibly to the Super Bowl, he will be fired and replaced by Bill Parcells.

If that happens, it also could mean the eventual departure of general manager Rich McKay because Parcells likely would want to make personnel decisions.

And some of those roster moves might involve popular players like Warrick Dunn, Simeon Rice, Jacquez Green, Donnie Abraham and even Warren Sapp.

"Change is not always the best thing," Dungy said. "Sometimes it is and it's inevitable in this business. But you have to decide, are you going in the right direction? Are you doing the things that give you a chance to win? If you are, generally, that's a pretty good way to go."

The Parcells rumors began at Super Bowl XXXV last year and intensified last week when the two-time Super Bowl-winning coach revealed he is considering another return to the sideline.

Dungy said he is not bothered by all the Parcells talk, but admits it may bother some players.

"I like Bill and Bill likes me, I think," Dungy said. "He was always good to me when I was a young coach getting started. He always had encouragement for me, he's talked, he's given me advice at times.

"But I can remember all the jobs Bill Walsh was supposedly linked to, and Joe Gibbs. There's nothing that can be done about it because that's the era we're in. There's all these informational shows, and informational broadcasts. It's like fantasy football. People love it, but it really doesn't have a lot to do with what's going on day by day and who's going to win. And that's what we have to be concerned about."

That's not as easily done, according to some Bucs players.

All last week, they were bombarded with questions about whether they are playing for Dungy's job.

"You all want to get into Tony's job, this and that," Sapp said. "The Glazers won't say anything, I don't know anything, it's not my call. If it was my call, I would reward the best coach that's ever been in franchise history. You do that. At least let the man play out his contract."

Cornerback Ronde Barber said if concerns about Dungy's future galvanize the locker room, the team will be better for it.

"To me, it can be a way of motivation and inspiration," he said. "If that's what it's going to take to play your best game, that attitude, then it can't hurt you. I think everybody has that same feeling toward this coach. I'm all for it."

Dungy insists that the calls for a coaching change would be just as loud if the Bucs went 14-2 and failed to win the Super Bowl.

"I would speculate that no matter where we are, the same thing would be happening," he said. "If we were 12-2, you'd have the same thing but it would be couched, "If they don't do it in the playoffs, this is the team that should go to the Super Bowl and if they don't, this should happen.' That's the way it is some places. ... I saw it in Minnesota, I saw it in Kansas City with some outstanding records and playoffs every year.

"I don't want to say it's fun, because it affects a lot of families. But it's fun to sit back and speculate for the people doing it that this guy is going to go here. A guy called me today and said, "I hear your name, that if you don't make it down there, you might surface in Carolina.' I said, "The last I heard, Carolina had a coach.' But that's this time of year. It's all fantasy football, but has become the fun thing to do."

There's no question Dungy will have to face some questions at the end of the season.

He has changed offensive coordinators and quarterbacks three times in the past three seasons and nothing has seemed to help the offense.

Tampa Bay is ranked 30th in the NFL in rushing. Its defense has been susceptible to big plays and bruising running backs. Sapp, who vowed to break Mark Gastineau's sack record of 22, has six this season.

Even if the Bucs beat New Orleans today and clinch a playoff spot by beating Baltimore and/or Philadelphia, critics say it's unlikely they'll last more than a game in the postseason.

Dungy's teams are 0-3 in road playoff games and they would have to match their longest win streak of the season to reach the Super Bowl.

"I think we'll sit down and talk through the pluses and minuses, what we did well and what we didn't, where we think we can go," Dungy said. "And then I think everybody will make a decision. That's what I expect and I haven't been given any reason to expect anything different."

Dungy admits he expected the 2001 Bucs to be better, especially after adding players such as quarterback Brad Johnson and Rice.

"You think that. Does that translate into more wins? Sometimes it does, sometimes it doesn't," he said. "It's how you play that year and I've been in it long enough to realize that. Because we're 7-6 right now, does that mean we can't be as good or can't go further than we've ever gone? No, it doesn't mean that."

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