Call it the $1.3-trillion tax cut for all seasons. President-elect George W. Bush was pushing his huge, across-the-board tax-cut proposal in the spring and summer, when the economy was roaring and fears of inflation were rampant. One economist said Bush's plan to stimulate an already overheated economy was the equivalent of offering a drunk a double.

As fall has turned to winter and the economy shows signs of cooling off, Bush is still pushing his $1.3-trillion cut. In fact, he and Vice President-elect Dick Cheney keep making public statements that almost sound as if they're rooting for a recession so they can justify their tax cut.

This foolish consistency -- promoting massive, regressive tax cuts in good times and (according to Bush and Cheney) bad -- is troubling in several respects. First, it suggests that Bush's push for tax cuts is based almost entirely on political calculations, not economic ones. Second, even if Bush and Cheney are right about an imminent recession (and most economists say they aren't), manipulating tax policy is an ineffective, and often counterproductive, way to adjust the economy. Cooling down an overheated economy, or stimulating a sluggish one, is better left to Alan Greenspan and the Federal Reserve, which can act much more quickly and precisely than Congress or the president to fine-tune monetary policy.

Finally, the uncompromising talk on taxes undercuts Bush's broader efforts to follow through on his promises to be a bipartisan consensus-builder in Washington. Even many Republican leaders, including House Speaker Dennis Hastert, have suggested that Bush would be wiser to settle for smaller, incremental tax cuts. And economists across the spectrum are, at best, skeptical of the impact Bush's proposed cuts would have on an economy that has been doing just fine without them.

Maybe Bush is only posturing to stake out a strong negotiating position on tax policy before Congress becomes involved. But such a tactic would be uncharacteristic of Bush. Stubbornness on such a major issue could poison efforts toward consensus on other elements of the new administration's agenda.

Meanwhile, Bush, Cheney and other members of the new administration should mute their loose talk about a looming recession. The temptation to blame the outgoing Clinton administration for any future economic troubles is obvious, but the statistics don't support such pessimism. Not yet, anyway. Bush's words, like Greenspan's, now have the power to move markets. The president-elect's words and actions should be geared toward preventing an economic downturn, rather than inviting a downturn to justify a tax cut.

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