Politicians wary of race initiative

A push by Ward Connerly to eliminate affirmative action programs in Florida might end up helping Democratic candidates.

By PETER WALLSTEN

© St. Petersburg Times, published March 28, 1999

TALLAHASSEE -- Florida's leading black Democrats don't mince words when they describe California businessman Ward Connerly's war on affirmative action: divisive, mean-spirited, racist.

But underlying the attacks is a hidden truth: If Connerly gets his initiative on next year's ballot, the unexpected political beneficiaries could be Democratic candidates seeking office at the same time.

Connerly's agenda could have the dual effect of energizing the Democratic Party's most loyal voters -- African-Americans -- and undermining the Republican Party's efforts to reach beyond its traditional base of white, conservative voters.

"There ain't nothing about this that's good for us right now," said Tom Slade, the former state Republican Party chairman who now works as a consultant and lobbyist.

Connerly, whose anti-affirmative action campaigns in California and Washington state were successful, announced this month that Florida will be his next battleground.

He hopes to get an initiative on the ballot in November 2000 that would ban "discrimination" based on gender, race, national origin, color or ethnicity when it comes to public education, employment and contracts.

He has a long way to go before Florida voters would get a chance to consider the ban. Putting an initiative on the Florida ballot requires more than 400,000 signatures and approval from the Florida Supreme Court, which has been quite picky in the past to ensure that ballot language adheres to the Constitution by dealing with just one subject.

Still, the prospect of a fight over affirmative action in Florida has many politicians squirming, because it adds an uncertain element to what is already shaping up to be a big political year in 2000.

Floridians will choose a U.S. senator to replace retiring Republican Connie Mack. The state will host a spring presidential primary, and its 25 electoral votes will be up for grabs in the fall election.

It's inevitable that candidates and elected politicians will be obligated to take a stand. Consider, for example, the leading presidential candidates.

Vice President Al Gore, the front-runner for the Democratic nomination, opposed Connerly's campaign in California and would do the same in Florida, a spokesman said.

"Vice President Gore is a believer in affirmative action, that it works for America," said Gore spokesman Roger Salazar. "The vice president has always had pretty strong support among the progressive element of the party, especially minorities. We'd be on the right side of this issue."

Former Vice President Dan Quayle, who is seeking the Republican nomination, has been a vocal supporter of Connerly, and he met with him in California two weeks ago. He will not hesitate to support Connerly in Florida, a spokesman said.

"Ward Connerly and Dan Quayle are good friends and allies in the battle to ensure equal opportunities for all people," said Quayle spokesman Jonathan Baron.

A spokeswoman for Texas Gov. George W. Bush said he opposes quotas but favors "affirmative access" by promoting a plan guaranteeing the top 10 percent of high school graduating classes admission to a state university.

Closer to home, Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, brother of George W. Bush, has tried to walk a fine line.

Jeb Bush called Connerly's initiative divisive. But he also wrote Connerly a letter Feb. 19 acknowledging that he, too, opposes quotas. The delicate balance illustrates Bush's challenge to continue reaching out to the African-American voters he courted last year while pleasing his GOP base voters, many of whom might oppose affirmative action.

"I appreciate your passion for this issue and your good-faith efforts," wrote Bush, who enraged some black Democratic lawmakers by meeting with Connerly in the Capitol in January. "Broadening opportunity is a goal of my administration. We can do this without quotas and set-asides. You have my word that I will seek to expand opportunity in a manner that respects each individual and his or her talents and does not create a climate of guarantees based on race."

For Democrats, the initiative presents another challenge. The party has spent the past several years trying to reach out to moderate, white voters who had left the party because it was seen as too liberal. At the same time, Florida Democrats have been forced to spend time and resources wooing black voters since last year, when a racial rift erupted after the ouster of a black lawmaker from leadership.

Leading black Democrats acknowledge the awkward position.

They called a news conference earlier this month to denounce Connerly. But in an interview after the event, the chairman of the Conference of Black State Legislators acknowledged the possible benefits for his party.

Most notably, Connerly's initiative could bring blacks and other traditional Democrats to the polls, where they'd also have a chance to vote for Democratic candidates for president, U.S. Senate and the Legislature.

"I have thought about that," said state Sen. Daryl Jones, D-Miami, chairman of the Conference of Black State Legislators.

But, Jones added, he can't in good conscience hope for such a battle to erupt in Florida.

"You can't use those strategies to dictate your actions," he said. "You have to move forward based on what you believe is right."

For his part, Connerly, a Republican, has criticized Florida's GOP for equivocating. Connerly won support in California from Republican Gov. Pete Wilson and the party establishment when the initiative was up in 1996.

He called Jeb Bush's letter "fuzzy" and says anybody who agrees that racial preferences are wrong should consider principle over politics.

"It is divisive," Connerly said of his effort. "But I don't know one public policy issue that doesn't divide. What is divisiveness? It is forcing people to make a decision one way or the other. It is dividing people along policy lines."

If his movement hurts the Republican Party, "I don't give a crap," Connerly said.

"I'm not doing this as a Republican. I'm doing it as an American citizen who believes in the philosophy."

Poll numbers in California show Connerly may have contributed to a slide for Republicans. The affirmative action issue, along with campaigns in the Golden State against benefits for immigrants and bilingual education, painted a picture of then-Gov. Wilson and the GOP as extreme.

Last year, the California GOP lost the governor's race, five seats in the state assembly and one seat in the senate.

According to California pollster Mervin Field, the campaign over the anti-affirmative action initiative known as Proposition 209 grew increasingly partisan as the 1996 election drew closer. A poll one week before the election showed that Democrats opposed the initiative 54 percent to 32 percent, while Republicans supported it 60-30. While early polls showed overwhelming support for the initiative, it was approved by a margin of 54-46.

Blacks make up only 7 percent of the voters in California, compared with about 10.5 percent in Florida. About one in every five Democrats in Florida is black, meaning an anti-affirmative action campaign could motivate blacks here just as the immigration issue motivated Latinos in California.

"This is the kind of issue that really divides the public," said Field. "You'll find the parties being polarized. If you have any kind of campaign, it's one that's just going to stir the emotions and polarize the public."

Unlike California's Wilson, both Bush brothers have sought to broaden their appeal by casting themselves as moderates. That strategy was a key to Jeb Bush's 1998 victory, in contrast to his losing 1994 effort when he appealed mainly to traditional conservatives.

The Florida governor in recent days is doing his best to avoid talking about Connerly at all.

"I don't think we ought to be building this up," Bush said last week. "The guy's got to get a lot of signatures, got to raise a lot of money, got to pass a constitutional test. I'd rather focus on the things that are before us in the legislative process rather than create a whole lot of heat and no light."