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The forecast is still for an unusually active hurricane season, and the peak period is just about to begin.
By MIKE BRASSFIELD
© St. Petersburg Times, published August 18, 1999
It has been a quiet hurricane season. If history is any guide, that's about to change.
Nearly halfway through the six-month stretch, only one tropical storm has formed in the Atlantic: Arlene, which quickly fell apart in June.
But meteorologists, still predicting a worse-than-average year, think Bret, Cindy and Dennis will soon be on their way.
"The bell doesn't really ring to start the season until the 20th of August," said Chris Landsea, research meteorologist with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Starting now, the likelihood of a tropical storm or hurricane will increase every day, peaking on Sept. 10, said Frank Lepore of the National Hurricane Center in Miami.
"We're still at the starting gate," Lepore said. "The peak of the season is really another 31/2 weeks away."
Based on global weather conditions, hurricane forecaster William Gray expects 14 named storms this season, the most he has ever predicted. He thinks nine will become hurricanes, compared with the average of six per year.
NOAA is predicting three or more "intense" hurricanes, with wind speeds in excess of 110 mph; the average is two. The Hurricane Center also expects an active season.
Although hurricane season runs from June to November, the most volatile period is late August through September.
"If it's going to be an active hurricane season, it'll have to start pretty soon," Landsea said. "If there's no activity by the first of September, the forecast for a busy year might be in doubt."
On Tuesday, the Hurricane Center was watching a large area of disturbed weather over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula that had the potential to become a tropical cyclone.
Satellite images showed a quiet Atlantic, but computer models suggested a tropical storm might develop over the ocean in the next few days, said hurricane forecaster Lixion Avila.
This year reminds meteorologists of 1998, which had no tropical storms for the first half of August, followed by roughly a storm a week through late August and September.
Last year had 14 named storms and 10 hurricanes. Georges gave the Tampa Bay area a scare in late September, and Mitch killed 9,000 Central Americans in late October.
So, forecasters say, the slow start should fool no one.
In 1992, for instance, there wasn't a single hurricane until Aug. 22.