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No. 2 pick can help a little or hurt a lotBy PETER WALLSTEN and TIM NICKENS © St. Petersburg Times, published May 25, 1998 Just ask Jeb Bush. The Republican candidate for governor recently received an ultimatum from one of his party's key constituencies, the Christian conservatives: Pick an abortion rights opponent as your running mate, or else. "We all encouraged him to choose a pro-life running mate, in no uncertain terms," said John Dowless, executive director of the Christian Coalition of Florida. "It wasn't, "It'd be good.' It was, "Here's the right thing to do, and here's why.' " The demand, which came this month at a private meeting between Bush and some 20 conservative activists in Orlando, illustrates the challenge facing the gubernatorial candidates. By law, all candidates for governor have to choose a running mate before they qualify for the ballot in mid-July. It often is one of the early ways by which the voters and the media judge the decisionmaking skills of the candidates. Strategically, candidates want to choose a running mate who will draw votes and money while not damaging the ticket. They usually consider the previous political experience of a potential running mate, and often search for someone with community ties in different parts of the state. Politically, it is impossible to please everybody. Bush is facing that pressure on the abortion question. There's pressure on all the candidates to pick a woman. And the Democrats, whose party leaders ignited racial tension by ousting a black lawmaker from leadership, are under pressure to pick an African-American. All the candidates could feel some pressure, too, to choose a Hispanic running mate, or someone from a different part of the state for the sake of geographic diversity. "The issue should be that they should choose the best person they think should fill in as governor in their absence," said Leon Russell, president of the Florida NAACP. "I think there are a number of African-American candidates out there who fit that bill. Many of them are women." Said Charlene Carres, a prominent women's rights activist: "Frankly, since 50 percent or more of the voters in this state are women, I think there are qualified people available. It's only fair for whoever runs for governor of this state to realize that that segment ought to be represented." Some candidates may hold out as long as possible to choose their running mate. Others could make an immediate announcement if the right person says yes. "Everybody's waiting to see where the others go," said Rep. Keith Arnold of Fort Myers, a long shot in a Democratic field that now includes Lt. Gov. Buddy MacKay, former Sen. Rick Dantzler of Winter Haven and flamboyant Miami lawyer Ellis Rubin. "I'd love the luxury of being the last one." How much does the choice of running mate matter to voters? University of South Florida political scientist Susan MacManus thinks people look mostly at the top of the ticket. But the running mate can make a difference, offering either a slight boost or a huge problem. "The bottom line is, Floridians are going to vote for the top of the ticket," MacManus said. The running mate selection can be "either gravy or poison." One Democratic pol agreed, but said voters do look at the running mate as an indication of a candidate's character. "They look at the top of the ticket as far as what they are going to do," said Doug Heyl, the campaign manager for MacKay, considered Florida's most visible lieutenant governor ever. "But they look at the lieutenant governor as far as (determining whether) the candidate has enough confidence in themselves to pick someone equal to themselves who could do the job." At the same time, a politically savvy choice also can make voters question a candidate's motives. For Bush, choosing someone who supports abortion rights could help gain swing voters but cost him votes from party loyalists who think he is selling out to the enemy. Abortion opponents say they don't understand how an abortion opponent could stomach running with someone who supports abortion rights. "I personally would not be able to support him in that," said Steve Schrimsher, an Orlando businessman and conservative Christian activist who attended this month's meeting. "It's a life and death issue. To say you're pro-life and select somebody who is not as a running mate is an enigma. I might not show up." Last November, Bush was cheered by moderates and women when he chose Secretary of State Sandra Mortham as his running mate. But within weeks, a series of press reports questioning Mortham's ethics regarding her state job forced her off the ticket. The pressure for Bush to name a woman to the ticket appears to have faded. Now supporters think he needs a safe choice -- someone with an impeccable record of public service and perhaps business acumen. Bush, who made no promises during his meeting with the Christian conservative groups, refuses to say whom he is considering. But he says his decision will have more to do with quality than campaign strategy, and he will not be bound by special interest groups. "I'll look for the most qualified person," he said. Among the names now believed to be among Bush's possibilities: state Sen. Jim Horne of Orange Park, former Sen. Curt Kiser of Palm Harbor and former Secretary of State Jim Smith of Tallahassee. Speculation also has centered on the moderate mayor of Orlando, Glenda Hood. Kiser and Horne reportedly have submitted personal information to the Bush campaign that includes tax returns, voting records, employment history and driving records. Horne is a certified public accountant who was first elected to the Senate in 1994. His ambition showed through last year when he made a run at challenging Toni Jennings for the Senate presidency. He opposes abortion rights. Kiser, who served for a decade in the state House and another in the state Senate, now works as a lobbyist representing a variety of business clients. Considered a moderate Republican, Kiser has strong environmental credentials and supports abortion rights. Striving for balanceBuddy MacKay has not had much early luck in the selection process, either Due to Bush's strong leads in opinion polls and money-raising, MacKay's overtures already have been rejected by at least three possible candidates: Miami-Dade Mayor Alex Penelas, Miami Herald publisher David Lawrence and NationsBank executive Adelaide "Alex" Sink of Tampa. MacKay, who is from Ocala, could benefit from geographic and ethnic diversity. There would be advantages to choosing a Hispanic or African-American running mate, and he certainly could use help from someone known in a large metropolitan area such as Miami, Tampa Bay or Orlando. But with some of the most-desired candidates already ruling themselves out, two of the remaining possibilities to team with MacKay are Orange County Mayor Linda Chapin, who is prevented by term limits from seeking re-election, and Miami-Dade State Attorney Kathy Rundle. Some black lawmakers have pushed for MacKay to choose state Rep. Cynthia Chestnut of Gainesville, an African-American who worked closely with the Republicans during this year's legislative session after the January ouster of Rep. Willie Logan from the Democratic leadership. "We'll tell you when we've got one," campaign manager Heyl said. "We are not going to choose running mates by trial balloon." MacKay declined to speculate openly, a strategy that has led to the embarrassing rejections. "See?" he said. "I've learned." At least MacKay is the front-runner for the Democratic nomination. Attracting a credible running mate may be even more difficult for Dantzler. "I know I am still the underdog," Dantzler said. "A lot of people wouldn't be willing to give up what they already have to take a chance." Eager to do something different, Dantzler took the advice of his Washington consultant a month ago and met with Anthony Kennedy Shriver, the son of Sargent Shriver and Eunice Kennedy Shriver. His father was the Democratic vice presidential candidate in 1972 and his mother founded the Special Olympics. That family history and the fund-raising ability could provide an instant boost to Dantzler's campaign. Shriver, a Miami Beach businessman who considered running for mayor, and Dantzler met for about 90 minutes. Dantzler said both agreed the idea wouldn't work. Now Dantzler has about a dozen people on his wish list but will not reveal the names. "I've always thought that a bad choice would cost you votes and a good choice is not going to get that many because they're looking at the top of the ticket," he said. Arnold, considered the darkest horse in the race, is the only anti-abortion Democrat in the race. He said he is looking for someone to bring some balance to the ticket when it comes to issues. He is not willing to balance his stand on abortion, however. "We're trying to figure out what type of candidate we need to beat the competition," Arnold said. "The problem is, we don't know what the competition is going to do." Arnold said he and MacKay face similar challenges in finding a running mate willing to risk running. "Nobody believes I'm going to win," Arnold said.
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ALLAHASSEE -- Even a fat campaign account and a big lead in the polls don't necessarily buy a candidate freedom when it comes to choosing a running mate.
